Anderlecht made a poor game in the first leg in Holland and must be happy to come home with just 1 goal in their net. Looking at the bigger picture may be they had a day off in otherwise a remarkable season, winning game after game in the Jupiler League, marching in Europe by winning all 6 games in the groups stage (not counting the epic fail of Andrelecht's reserves for the Belgian Cup against Rupel Boom)...  Having the troop of Ariel Jacobs back on Constant Vanden Stock where it is invincible and largely scoring (average 3 goals per game this season) and with Matias Suarez returning in the starting eleven things must be quite different compared with last week's bashing in Alkmaar.

On their side AZ popped out of a weak group where they had the company of Metalist Kharkiv, Malmo and Austria Wien. Even so the Dutch team got just one win over Malmo in the first day tailed by 5 draws just enough to keep the Swedes behind by better tally in the direct matches. Meanwhile AZ are fading big in Eredivisie since the end of November and blowed their comfortable lead at the top with a string of poor results away from AFAS - 1-5 at Heerenveen, 1-2 at Breda, 0-2 at Roda and 0-3 at Utrecht in the weekend. Serious glitches in their machine.

Verdict: AZ ruled in the first game  but with so tiny cushion have a lot to worry about being so fragile on the road, even Aalesund knocked them with 2-1 in the first leg of the preliminary round. If Anderlecht play their usual game that must result in a home win.

Over 2.5 goals is another very popular bet for the game (same odds), seeing such picks all over the web. I agree it makes sense but choosing between both I would stick to backing Anderlecht, if we think more bets on over 2.5 will go OK in the huge part if Anderlecht win - as the rest serving options are AZ winning by 2-1 and upwards or 2-2 draw, both with slim chances to happen. So if you fancy a punt on three or more goals better go for the home side leaving the door open for 1-0 or 2-0 too.

Who is missing:

Anderlecht: Tom De Sutter (FW / 6+11 games / 2 goals). Behrang Safari (DF / 18 games) is a doubt
AZ: None

Weather: Cloudy, +6 C