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Italy - Sweden    (lost)

Second leg in this World Cup playoffs qualifications. Sweden arrived to Italy with big 1:0 advantage after first leg at home. I said big cause in such two legs system, win at home without conceding goal, can be huge thing.
But today in Italy, in Milano on San Siro stadium, I think Sweden is big underdog and hardly will be able to keep advantage from first leg.
Italy is fired up to revenge for the game played in Sweden. It was not best game for Italy, there is no doubt about that, but IMO they deserved a draw. Now at home everything but Italian convincing win would be surprise. 
Have in mind Italy is real "monster" when playing at home. They are unbeaten at home since 1999. I'm talking about competitive games, 44 since the mentioned 1999 (36W, 8D).
As for H2H with Sweden, all time 23 games, 11-6-6 in favor of Italy and huge 7-2-1 at home.
Having all those numbers in mind and knowing 80 thousands people will be behind home team on San Siro, I think there is huge edge on Italy.
BTW, Italy has qualified for every Word Cup since 1958. Clearly how huge surprise it would be to one of all time best ever football nation fail to qualify for Russia. IMO it won't happen.
Italy was not brilliant during group stage but you know, when you are in the same group with Spain, you can't say it is a failure to end up as runner-up.
There are rumors head coach Ventura will be fired even if Italy qualify (Carlo Ancelotti seems like the guy with best chances to replace him) but this should not have impact on Italian team in today's match. 
Italy is with full squad today except the suspended Verrati.

The pick is based on strong expectation Sweden won't score against tough Italian defense. So with Italy able to keep the clean sheet, I think this bet has great chance. Expected result 2:0.
Published: 13-11-2017, 15:44 CET Pick: Italy -1
Odds: 1.91 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: European football
Date: 13-11-2017
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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