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Kansas (Vargas) vs Detroit (Zimmermann)    (won)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Detroit Tigers beat Blue Jays yesterday and they won 3 out of last 4 games. They will face Kansas City Royals on the road with Vargas on the mound. Kansas beat Texas yesterday by 4-3, but that win is just only one in last 6 games. The bookmakers opened Detroit as huge underdog of around 2.40 (+140), but then they adjusted the numbers and the odds dropped to around 2.15-2.20. Some bookmakers still have Detroit Tigers at 2.30. And all those numbers are value numbers based on my predictive model. I have projected, that Detroit has 50.5% of chance to win this game and Kansas City 49.5%. Basically 50-50 game and if you can get the odds around 2.20, there is some value with Detroit today. 

Match Up
Detroit score 5.2 runs per game against left handed pitchers, which is their best situation. And not only, that they score more against lefties than against righties, they also have very good numbers against Jason Vargas, who will start game for Kansas. In 149 at bats, they have 9 home runs and batting average of 0.297 against him. Upton, Cabrera, V. Martinez, Avila and Kinsler, they all have batting average of more than 0.300 against him in the past. And those players are key players for Detroit Tigers. If they can continue with good numbers against Vargas, he could have long day. 

On the other side we have Zimmermann, who will start the game for Detroit Tigers and Kansas score 4.1 runs per game versus right handed pitcher. And in last 7 games, they scored only 3.3 runs per game. Zimmerman is 2-0 against Kansas in his career and last year when he faced them he struck out 13 Kansas hitters in 14 innings pitched. I am not fooled buy his numbers, because he is still not great, but when we take into account Vargas bad numbers against Detroit and current form from both teams, I think this game is more 50-50, than anything else. 

Reason for pick
Vargas has bad numbers against Detroit Tigers players. In last 3 games, he allowed 5 home runs and we all know, that Tigers have a lot of power too. Detroit is playing better lately, after all, they won a series against Blue Jays. On the other side Kansas lost 5 out of last 6 games, where they struggle to score runs (Last 7 games = 3.3 runs, BA 0.224). I have projected, that this game should be 50-50. I expect, that if I play Detroit in this game and if they win, that bookmakers will pay me 1 unit of profit (if I bet 1 unit). They would pay me more and I think we have a nice value bet with Detroit. 
 
Play Detroit
Published: 17-07-2017, 16:05 CET Pick: Detroit (Zimmermann)
Odds: 2.35 at bwin


Category: MLB baseball
Date: 18-07-2017
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)




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