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Krasnodar - Crvena zvezda    (won)

One early bet from europa league play offs. I think current odds represent very nice value and that will see way lower odds later. In fact odds on home team already started to drop from initial 1.85. Here and there, you still might find something like that, Marathonbet still offers 1.80.
I'm always careful when betting on Crvena zvezda cause it is hard to be objective when your favorite team is in question. But this time I have no problem with it, cause I'm definitely objective since my opinion is going completely against Crvena zvezda.
In Serbia there is currenty some kind of euphoria about Crvena zvezda, as in media as among fans. But I just do not see valid reasons for this. IMO Zvezda is with really slim chances to qualify to the group stage. They are surely complete outsiders in this first game on the road.
Let's take a look on so far season for the Serbian team. Zvezda is perfect in Serbia with 3 wins in as many rounds. But clearly, we should not count too much on domestic results given on very poor ranking of Serbian club football. In Europe Zvezda passed three rounds. But failed to win on the road either in Malta, either in Kazakhstan, both times against pretty modest opponents. Though in third round, it was great result for us. Namely, Crvena zvezda eliminated Sparta Prague after both wins. Still, this still was not enough to convince me Zvezda is a team able to compete on 50:50 with these high ranked opponents in the 4th round. Cause if you had chance to see previous round, then you saw not just solid Serbian team but more important you saw one very bad performance from Sparta. The team from Czech Republic was desperate to say at least. They were so weak that fans left the stadium 20 minutes before end of second leg, in some kind of protest. We should also mentioned that Sparta had plenty of injured players. They have invested money but those new players either were not able to help either played terrible game. Also Italian coach made some decisions that is hard to explaine. You are 0:2 down from the first leg and then start at home with one striker. In any case, even with one terrible performance, Sparta still made 4 to 5 great chances but only in final 15 minutes when went for all or nothing. So, Sparta has excellent ranking but currently they are nowhere near where probably wants to be. They even failed in domestic league season opener and played just 1:1 as 1.15 favorite. This is all why I'm not faling on fact Zvezda passed to 4th round. Krasnodar is way better opponent. The home team is one of best in strong Russian Premier League while Crvena zvezda is a team whose three four main players are those who played in the past in low quality teams in Russia and even there were not able to make a difference. Or even worst they could not play in Russian lower division. In the mean time Zvezda left without important player, Jovicic who got injured and as his replacement figure former member of Crvena zvezda, Mijailovic. One more of those above mentioned. Namely, he is currently not playing main role in Kryla Sovetov, team from second rank in Russia.
All in all, unfortunately I do not see anything promising for Crvena zvezda in this upcoming two legs meeting with Krasnodar. By all chances, Crvena zvezda will remain without group stage for 10th season in a row. Or, I at least do not see them able to avoid defeat in this first leg.
Published: 08-08-2017, 18:04 CET Pick: Krasnodar
Odds: 1.8 at Marathonbet

Category: European football
Date: 17-08-2017
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)

FinnishFlash 17-08-2017, 20:54
Thanks! Crazy match, but total control of Krasdonar but they were vulnerable to counters.. You got my last euro from this month :D
FairPlayBet 17-08-2017, 21:01
Assistant referee missed that half meter ball in goal of CZ. So, 2 difference would give more clear picture what was going on. As you said, Krasnodar completely was in control all the time. They deserved more but win is a win, at least for us in betting.
FinnishFlash 17-08-2017, 21:06
Yea it was a clear goal, and I was like WTF cause it was clear in live picture to me that its a goal.. And when saw from replay it was like u said half meter in :D

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