New York Giants vs. New England

Pick New England -2.5

NYG average 25 PPG, give up 23.1 PPG.

NE average 32.3 PPG, give up 20.7 PPG.

NYG rush for 93.6 YPG, throw for 294 YPG.

NE rush for 111.4 YPG, throw for 315.8 YPG.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money on this football game.  Vegas does not screw up Super Bowl lines.  It just doesn’t happen.  It’s one of the biggest games for them all year long and they have to get it right.  This line opened at -4 (which I think is a little more accurate of the type of game we’re going to see) and quickly settled in at 2.5 to 3 points. 

Here’s the thing.  And I can’t seem to get past it….EVERY public bettor I know is on the Giants.  Everyone.  Sharps are on the Patriots.  This is why the line has remained relatively stable.  With as much money is coming in on the NYG, the line should have moved to -1 or maybe even a pick’em situation, but it hasn’t.  That means sharp money has basically drown out public money.  Which side do you want to be on? 

Look at the season stats I listed above.  New England dominates New York in every statistical category except yards allowed.  And I could care less about that stat.  It give you no legitimate understanding of what actually happened in a game.  You could give up 400 yards on defense and still win a game by 3 touchdowns, and NE did that often.  In fact, let me give you the scores of every NE game going into the fourth quarter: 28-17, 20-7, 24-17, 24-13, 24-14, 13-13, 3-10, 10-20, 23-9, 27-3, 31-13, 31-3, 34-27, 20-17, and 28-21.  They led going into the 4^th quarter in every regular season game this year except for 2 and they lost both those games to the Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers.  What does this mean?  It means that they played a prevent defense for the entirety of most 4^th quarters, which allows your opponents to rack up plenty of yardage.  The New England defense is not nearly as bad as everyone thinks they are.  They play a certain style of bend but don’t break to allow Tom Brady and company to win the game.  Make no mistake, the Patriot defense is probably not going to win them this game, but they’ll keep the Giants stymied enough that their offense will have ample opportunity to do so. 

Everyone has made a big deal about how easy the New England schedule was this year.  And they would be right.  New England beat only 2 teams with a winning record.  However, they still went 15-3.  Has anyone looked at the Giant’s schedule?  They only PLAYED 4 teams with a winning record!  In fact, they also played Washington twice, Dallas twice, Philly twice (all with losing records) and St. Louis, Arizona, Buffalo, Miami.  They only difficult games they had were against San Fran, Green Bay, New England and New Orleans.  The only game they won was against New England, 24-20 in week 9.  And the kicker is that even with such a terrible schedule, this team only went 9-7 in the regular season.  You can talk about injuries all you want, but EVERY NFL team dealt with injuries this year.  If you’re good enough, you overcome them. 

Brad Gronkowski seems to be the source of much debate this week and I don’t know why.  He injured his ankle against the Ravens (high ankle sprain) and has now had 2 weeks to fully recover.  I am a physiotherapist by trade and work for a large University in the US, treating all major athletic programs.  This type of injury will NOT have any effect on his play tomorrow.  He did not practice much, if at all and got solid around the clock treatment.  And that is the key.  Injuries like this that occur DURING the season cause all kinds of problems because players try to come back too quickly.  Since he had the full two weeks, and there were no other games, it was actually the best time to get injured (if there is such a thing).  He will play and be just fine.

Finally, and most importantly, we take a look at the revenge factor.  This is so often overlooked in professional sports, because people think the athletes don’t care.  Let me tell you something.  EVERYONE on that New England squad still has anger toward the New York Giants for ending their perfect season in the Super Bowl 3 years ago.  They were huge underdogs in that game and handed Tom Brady a loss that has stuck with him.  When Brady gets angry, you really don’t want to be around.  Anyone who watched either game against Denver will tell you that.  He was pumped up and energetic like I had never seen him before.  Why?  Because the media were talking about how good Denver was and that New England couldn’t beat them.  Obviously that wasn’t the case.  This game is going to be very similar I believe.  The Giants really didn’t have any expectations going into the playoffs, and making the Super Bowl was quite an accomplishment.  They could very well be satisfied with simply being here.  The  Pats are hungry for this win and expected it from the start of the season.  They have the pedigree, the coaching and the offense to do it. 

Prediction:

New Engalnd 27  New York 17

Take NE -2.5