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San Francisco Giants (Moore) vs LA Dodgers (Darvish)    (lost)

  • Bookmakers line: +200 (3.00)
  • My Projected lines (math model): +141 (2.41)
What a game yesterday. San Francisco showed great effort against Kershaw and the Dodgers and they even had more hits, than their big rivalry. And we all know, that in those games anything can happen. Dodgers versus Giants is one of the biggest rivalries in MLB and Giants will have another chance today. 
Matt Moore will start for Giants today and at the first look, he has bad numbers against Dodgers. After all he lost last 3 games against Dodgers in 2017. But the only game at home against Dodgers he was superb, despite the loss. He went 7 innings, allowed only 2 hits and struck out 8 hitters. The problem is his poor team. But this has also changed, because San Francisco is playing much better, at least offensively. They score 5.6 runs/game in last 7 games, which is more than Dodgers. Note also, that Matt Moore has pretty good numbers against Dodgers hitters. In 143 at bats, they combined batting average of only .182 against him. 
Dodgers on the other side will start with Darvish, but we have struggling pitcher and struggling team here against their rivalry. Darvish lost 3 straight games and posted ERA of 9.49. He allowed 19 hits, 3 home runs in last 12 innings. And his team lost 11 straight games before they won somehow that game yesterday with the best pitcher on the mound (Kershaw). 
An the question is what we have here?
We have San Francisco as a huge underdog. We have one team, that is playing better and the other team that is struggling. We have one pitcher, that is struggling right now and we have a pitcher, that has good numbers against opposite hitters. I still give Dodgers more than 50% of chance to win, because they are still better team, but now way, that Giants should be +200 in this situation at home. I give Giants around 41.57% of chance to win this game and my fair odds are +141. I would expect from bookmakers, that they pay me $141 if I win with San Francisco, they are willing to pay me $200 if they win, which is $59 more and because of all that we have a value with San Francisco and Matt Moore. 
Play San Francisco (Moore)
Published: 13-09-2017, 21:27 CET Pick: San Francisco (Moore)
Odds: 3 at William Hill


Category: MLB baseball
Date: 14-09-2017
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)




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