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Stipe Miocic - Francis Ngannou    (won)

I'm not good at predicting odds movements but I like it how it is now, 2.30 is very nice.
Match for heavyweight title, title defender Stipe Miocic and challenger Francis Ngannou in Boston. I must admit that I'm leaning slightly towards Miocic but Ngannou with these recent matches looks scary.
Ok, this bet to pass, we need second round. It looks simple on paper, but with those guys you never know, especially with their last fights. Stipe ended his last four matches with first round ko, same as Francis (3 ko, 1 with kimura), so it looks like first round finnish looks like more possible outcome. I will disagree because I think Stipe is smart fighter, I don't expect that he will go in direct exchange, he will use his movement and wrestling to exhaust Francis and than go more offensively. I also think that Francis will not go direct on Stipe, not try to spend all energy in first round looking for knockout. I just think that both will not risk too much in the beginning looking for the finish and will try to settle, find the range, measure opponent and so on. 
Yes, this can be ended in first round by some vicious knockout, you never know, especially in hw where one shot is often enough, but I think Ngannou will be nervous a bit because it is his first title and Stipe is crazy fighter who beat Hunt, Overeem, Werdum, Dos Santos.   
Published: 12-12-2017, 12:25 CET Pick: over 1.5 round
Odds: 2.3 at Pinnacle

Category: MMA
Date: 21-01-2018
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)

KL1NCUNT 12-12-2017, 17:11
This pick makes sense, I agree. If Miocic will win, it will be over 1.5 and he will tire Ngannou out utilizing his wrestling. If Ngannou will win it will be under 1.5 possibly even 0.5. Very hard fight. I`m not even sure what I`ll bet on here, but I`m glad that UFC scheduled it in Boston so soon. Cain is also back in training and DC said he`s 100 % soon health wise and that he will prepare his body for a "longer run" whatever that means. So we should see Cain fighting the winner here no matter who it is somewhere later in 2018.
1000000 12-12-2017, 22:58
hard fight, yes, i feel like this match will be kind of irregular in terms of their outcomes from past matches, i think miocic can be survive first round, i`m counting if blaydes survided first round than stipe will :) cain`s comeback will be interesting, i feel like he will do some tune up fight first than title shot, maybe next for title shot will be winner of werdum and someone, maybe volkov
KL1NCUNT 15-12-2017, 15:31
I don`t know if you like or watch Joe Rogan`s podcast on youtube, but Miocic was on it the other day. Fun and interesting video, you get to know much more about Stip and his mindset etc. Also we have a great event tomorrow. I will write picks tonight after weigh ins for it, Perry - Ponz should be a banger damn!!
1000000 15-12-2017, 16:50
i watch it sometimes, i like when schnaub is guest when they break down everything, yes, i watched with stipe, he is great, from hws current on roster i like stipe the most, him and volkov, i agree 100% with him about match with francis, i mean overeem jumped on him like it is end of fight, because matches with werdum, stipe and his last matches involved moving the opponent, more technical, i`m sure stipe will be much smarter as he said, he will keep distance and wait for opponent because stipe is very tricky from those counter, his right is deadly.
1000000 15-12-2017, 16:52
yes, perry - ponz is bomb, i have under 0.5, under 1.5 and perry @ 2.7, man, perry is really not that lower than him and i think perry is wider, when i saw that in meadia faceoffs yesterday, i didn`t believed it, but perry is so godamn funny, can you image if he wins and if he faces till, can you image trash talk, wow, that will be hole another level
KL1NCUNT 15-12-2017, 18:34
Yeah, Schaub is a funny dude although many people make memes of him for his way of speaking and stuff haha. Yeah, Overeem fought like an idiot. It was really embarrassing to see PRIDE, K1, DREAM, Strikeforce etc. veteran fight like that in standup, really strange. My only explanation is that after that clinch with Ngannou Overeem immediately felt how much stronger Ngannou is and that he has no chance to knee him in clinch so he gave up completely on his gameplan and he went for some wild crazy shit that costed him some brain damage. Stipe will approach this fight smarter and I have feeling he will take Ngannou down. He only needs to take him down once and this fight is over in my opinion for sure, but in order for that to happen, takedown must be successful. On the other hand if Ngannou defends that first takedown it might be over again for Miocic because Ngannou will gain huge confidence just like he gained in Overeem case when he outmuscled him in clinch with ease. This is a very mental fight and whoever manages to takedown/defend takedown in the first try will win this fight in my opinion.
KL1NCUNT 15-12-2017, 18:39
Perry indeed looks great, pretty built lately. He learned a lot from that decision loss to Jouban. Ponzinibbio is a beast to coming from a big win over Gunnar Nelson that could not finish him with his BJJ. I think that also Perry odds must be taken, I completely agree with you. There` s a lot of hype around Perry and UFC wants him to win badly. If Perry wins he will fight Darren Till that brutally murdered Cowboy recently, holy shit imagine that fight Perry vs Till!! and they said they want to make it in Liverpool for scousers @ home of Till. But in order for that to happen Terry must beat Ponzi, that will be hard. But he`s got a good chance, as I said he learned a lot from his loss to Jouban. Ponzi is a much bigger favorite but I can`t avoid those odds on Perry and I`ll take them.
KL1NCUNT 15-12-2017, 18:41
Yeah trash talk would be amazing between Perry and Till that fight would SELL well if it goes on PPV, god damn I`m hyped before Perry even fought Ponzi. And about Perry being funny, do you remember recently after he won he said in post fight "Everybody wanna see me beat up Robbie Lawler..." I fucking jumped, that dude is crazy, not many people will call out Robbie Lawler like that, Perry is a mental beast as well. Hope he wins for Till vs Perry dream to come true.
1000000 16-12-2017, 07:59
haha yes it was hillarious, and the way he said it, it sounded like he deserved that fight
FightingBets 16-01-2018, 23:16
Hey guys! It’s defenitely a value tip, I hesitate to bet on this fight but after thinking I will not because everything can happen, how can you know whats going to happen when a guy can take your head off with one punch. And stipe head movement is not the best in the business so I dont know I think its not a good fight to bet but just to seat back and watch
1000000 17-01-2018, 11:07
hi there! i hesitated to take miocic but definitely after hardy`s analysis i took it. yes, ngannou is best, freak of nature, superb athlete and has raw instincts but what about his cardio, ground game, he didn`t get hurt so far, i don`t know, miocic is pretty complete fighter, i`m not sure about that head movement, yes, he got caught in the past but i think he has shown very good defense (even in that loss to Struve there is great head movements from him although he was knocked out) and he comes from boxing (and wrestling). ngannou`s style is pretty flashy and i believe that`s what most of people want to see and based on that there is so much hype around him, but miocic is proven himself, and there is certain value in this odds i think, in my eyes, this is at least 50/50 if not miocic as favorite.
FightingBets 17-01-2018, 11:54
I agree about what youre saying, Ngannou is to much hyped up in my opinion, he comes in to this fight with not a lot of weapon. At the beginning when I saw the odds, I wanted to bet on Miocic but after seing again some of his foght where he just stand and trade I am more afraid now. He has a good wrestling back ground but in his last fights he didnt use it, and against Ngannou it would be the key because Ngannou comes from Boxing, as natural power but we ´re not in a boxing fight so Miocic has to take him down to avoid Ngannou’s punch. Even if Miocic has decent striking I am afraid that he start thinkinh « Ok you wanna fight lets go » and just starting trade with Ngannou, this is what I am afraid of and why I wouldnt bet on this fight. He has to control the fight and take him dlwn, control against the fence that’s is key. I know where Ngannou is training, he was training in MMA Factory in Paris with Fernand Lopes for most of his mma carrer, this is a good team but coaches are essentielly focusing on striking, there is not much work on wrestling, grappling, not as much as USA, so Miocic has clearly an advantage when it comes to the grappling part and can surely wins this fight if he stay focus and smart, and not getting in to a brawl
1000000 17-01-2018, 23:02
yes, that is risk in backing up stipe, same as in overeem - ngannou, it didn`t take long to go to direct exchanges in the middle and we know what happened. i just think miocic is smarter and that will keep himself on outside and maybe through wrestling try to drain ngannou and take this match as long as possible. i think longer the match more stipe will have chances to win. and stipe has good counters, it can be dangerous to chase him. if he manage somehow to turn this into boring and ugly fight, he will probably win.

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