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Underdogchance


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Tampa Bay Rays (Ramirez) vs Detroit Tigers (Norris)   (won)

Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays will play the third and the last game in this series. Yesterday they scored 15 runs in pretty good pitching duel with Zimmermann and Archer on the mound and today I think, that totals at around 8 are set little bit too low. I have projected, that it will “happen” 10 runs in this game. 

Detroit will start with Norris, lefty pitcher, who has ERA of 2.19, but don’t be fooled with his numbers, because he also has 7 walks in 7 innings pitched. If he continues with the same pitching, his ERA will go up and Tampa Bay is good home scoring team. They score 5.1 runs per game at home and despite they score only 4 runs per game against LHP, they are very good against lefties in past years too. Their best player Evan Longoria is 3 for 4 against Norris. 

Tampa Bay on the other side will start Ramirez, who will start for the first time in 2017. Miguel Cabrera is 3 for 4 against him and Detroit scores 4.8 runs per game against right handed pitchers. The last time he faced Detroit, he allowed 4 runs in 5 innings. 

Detroit bullpen’s ERA is 7.57 and on the road even worse (8.21) so far this season. Tampa Bay on the other side ERA 4.21, at home 2.17.

We have two teams, that score more than 4.5 runs per game in this situation and we have one pitcher, who needs some regression, because he will not keep the same ERA with same pitching and we have a pitcher who will pitch for the first time this season. I have ranked both bullpen among 10 worst in the league and I think 8 runs is little bit too low total for this game.

Play over 8 


Published Apr-20-2017, 17:32 CET

Betting option: Under / Over
Pick: Over 8
Odds: 1.85   Stake: 10
Bookmaker: Marathonbet
Date: Apr-20-2017
Category: MLB baseball

/  Check Underdogchance stats on MLB baseball


Remy Apr-20-2017, 17:37 CET
Took this one hour ago over 7.5 @ 1.85. Good luck. I think Detroit will win 8-4.

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