NFL Betting 2025: Biggest MVP Movers Through Five Weeks
10-10-2025
A football on the field - Source: Unsplash
The 2025 NFL MVP race was supposed to see a familiar battle. It was to be Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson part two - Buffalo and Baltimore, quarterbacked by dual-threat icons whose every snap in 2024 screamed MVP pedigree. The two went head-to-head for the crown last term, with
Allen coming out on top to claim the most coveted personal award in the game for the first time.
And then, football happened.
Lamar Jackson`s Injury Triggers Crisis in Baltimore
Through five weeks of gripping action, online betting odds providers think that Allen remains in the hunt - firmly, if not spectacularly. The Bills hover near the AFC summit, but their position there is less convincing than it was following a shock week five defeat on home turf to the New England Patriots. Still, the latest
live betting odds at Bovada currently make the reigning MVP a short-priced +120 favorite to successfully defend the award come next January.
The same cannot be said for Lamar Jackson. In week four, fate struck for the two-time MVP award winner when he was crumpled beneath a Kansas City Chiefs pass rush in yet another humiliating defeat. The result? A multi-week absence, a stunned Ravens faithful, and a precarious 1-4 record, which has dragged his MVP stock from odds-on darling to utter longshot.
With one giant felled, the race has been detonated wide open. Odds boards flicker with movement. Households and have-beens alike have thrust themselves into the national conversation. And five weeks in, it may just be the most unpredictable MVP field in recent memory. Here are three players who suddenly find themselves in contention after being written off in the preseason.
Baker Mayfield
For those seeking redemption tales, Baker Mayfield is offering a masterclass in narrative disruption - real, visceral, edge-of-your-seat stuff. Written off in the summer at +3000 to win the league’s highest individual honor, Mayfield has, in a stroke of poetic audacity, led Tampa Bay to a 4-1 record, seizing control of the NFC South race with both hands.
But this is no mirage. Mayfield’s play is vivid, revelatory - a quarterback reborn under the Florida sun. He’s fourth in passing yards (1,283), co-third in touchdown tosses (10), and leads the league in fourth-quarter comebacks (four) - the kind of late-game sorcery that keeps coaches up at night and fans coming back for more. The coup de grâce? A 29-of-33, 379-yard,
three-touchdown opera against Seattle in Week 5, capped by a game-winning drive that showcased his rejuvenated confidence and football IQ.
As the numbers leap off the stat sheet, the betting markets respond: Mayfield has had his odds slashed to +1400, into the territory of Allen and perennial MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes. If the Bucs sustain this form - if the attitude and the improvisational brilliance hold - Mayfield might just complete a career arc worthy of Hollywood.
Daniel Jones
Sometimes, a change of scenery catalyzes the unimaginable. Daniel Jones, once the butt of late-night jokes in the Big Apple, now orchestrates fireworks for the Indianapolis Colts. Traded away, forgotten in the preseason at a stratospheric +50000 - and that`s with the bookies that were offering odds on a Jones MVP tilt; some weren`t - DJ isn’t just surviving, he’s redefining what a second act can look like in this league.
There’s precision in his play: the former sixth overall draft pick has completed 71.3% of his passes, has a clinical 6:2 TD-to-INT ratio, and is slinging nearly 300 yards per tilt - a career renaissance measured not by asterisks but by domination. The Colts are 4-1, the offense has scorched Las Vegas (40-6) and Tennessee (41-20), and Jones’ dual-threat poise is wreaking havoc on blitz-heavy defenses. Indy’s play calling is fearless, and Jones is validating every inch of trust.
Bookies took note - he’s now +2500, in the top-10 league-wide, his odds tightening with every week’s composed display. If the Colts maintain course toward an AFC South crown, Jones’ name may become the story of the season... if it isn`t already.
Jordan Love
Legacy whispers in Lambeau. After the Aaron Rodgers era, Jordan Love’s task in 2025 could not have been steeper - yet he’s answering with performances etched in detail and nerve. The metrics tell a tale of one of the sport’s hottest hands: 1,212 yards, eight touchdowns, only four interceptions, and a 97.6 passer rating through five stories in green and gold. His opening month? Over 1,000 yards with just one pick, and an NFL-high passer rating under duress: 15-of-25, 297 yards, three touchdowns when blitzed five-plus.
Green Bay’s playoff prospects don`t rest squarely on his broadening shoulders, especially considering the addition of Micah Parsons on the eve of the new campaign. Still, the odds have already announced what the numbers confirm: Love is legit. From +1400 at the outset to +800 now, he’s broken into the MVP’s upper echelon. Should the Packers parlay their 3-2 start into a postseason run, Love will earn both believers and history.
