NFL Betting 2025: Three Underdogs That Could Still Win Their Division
21-11-2025
Lumen Field, home of the Seattle Seahawks - Source: Unsplash
So far, the NFL has delivered us one golden rule this season: expect the unexpected. The gridiron in 2025 has been dominated by the underdogs. The Indianapolis Colts` superhero-like duo of Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor has unbelievably led Indy not just to top spot in the AFC South, but to top of the pile in the entire conference, poised to secure a playoff bye. The New England Patriots are in the midst of a similar Cinderella story, topping the AFC East on the back of an MVP-calibre campaign from Tom Brady reincarnate, Drake Maye.
But while those two have been thriving, a number of the league`s biggest and brightest have been performing below the lofty expectations that both bookies and punters alike set for them in the preseason. While that`s bad news for anyone who already has bets placed on them, the good news for you is that you can back some of them to pull off the comeback at hugely inflated odds. Yes, they`re down right now, but they`re not out. Far from it. And here`s why.
Kansas City Chiefs
For nine straight seasons, AFC West supremacy has worn the red and gold of Kansas City. The Mahomes era hasn’t just been dominant; it’s redefined expectations, merging wizardry with ruthless regularity. And yet, November finds the Chiefs gasping in rarefied air - 5-4, three games back of a swaggering Denver outfit, suddenly mortal in ways few could have forecast.
In the preseason, online betting sites expected more. Much more. KC was considered an odds-on favorite to win the division heading into the opening weekend. Now, as week 12 approaches, the latest
real-time betting Bovada odds list them as +155 outsiders. But look deeper, and the margins are thinner than headlines suggest.
All four of the Chiefs` losses have come back one score or less, with those to the Eagles and the Jaguars in particular coming by just three points. The
Week 1 stinger against the Chargers set alarm bells ringing a little, while Philadelphia`s Super Bowl LIX repeat built on defensive resilience rather than outright dominance. Add to that a fourth-quarter ambush at Jacksonville, and an unraveling against Buffalo that snapped a three-game win streak, and it`s easy to see that the Chiefs aren`t a million miles away from contention.
The Mahomes-Kelce axis remains potent, but red-zone blind spots and clock malfunctions have hamstrung the attack (26.1 PPG, middle of the pack). Yet crucially, they have been elite defensively - allowing 18.7 points per game, with Chris Jones bludgeoning pockets and a secondary that salivates over takeaways.
Here’s the kicker: The schedule, loaded with AFC minefields, division duels, and a primetime clash under the Thanksgiving lights with Dallas, is merciless. But adversity is gasoline for Mahomes, who has authored some of his magnum opuses while the world doubted. If the defense keeps bending games, Kelce remains a safe pair of hands, and the offense rediscovers its late-game killer instinct, don’t just expect a late sprint - expect an orchestration. Count the Chiefs out at your peril.
Buffalo Bills
For much of the last half-decade, the AFC East has been Buffalo’s canvas - a masterpiece painted in power, precision, and the sheer will of Josh Allen. Yet 2025 has twisted the brush: a 6-3 record, one dazzling Sunday followed by an inexplicable misstep, and a suddenly resurgent Patriots juggernaut (9-2) powered by the league’s most fearless sophomore quarterback.
Buffalo’s wounds are mostly self-inflicted. An unthinkable flop against a then-2-2 Patriots squad, a
miserable Monday night in Atlanta, and an outright defensive collapse against a floundering Miami side - all have conspired to turn the Bills from boardroom darlings to divisional chasers. Injuries and inconsistency have battered the defensive front (21.2 points allowed, 19th NFL-wide), but Allen has refused to blink: 2,400+ yards, 23 total touchdowns, and moments of ecstasy that leave even the neutrals breathless.
What stands between Buffalo and a sixth straight East banner is a gauntlet: big-stage duels with the Buccaneers, Texans, Browns, Steelers, Eagles, and two division showdowns, including a seismic Week 15 rematch against New England. Yet the equation remains unchanged: protect Allen, and they can outscore anyone. Rediscover a defensive backbone, and the Patriots’ cushion will feel suddenly paper-thin.
Betting against Buffalo is a wager against narrative logic and recent history. If Allen catches fire, the secondary mends, and the ghosts of one-score games are exorcised, scriptwriters may yet need to call in a rewrite: Buffalo, champions again. Odds of +230 say they aren`t out of the fight just yet.
Seattle Seahawks
The NFC West, paradoxically, might be the most unpredictable of all - anchored by the glitzy Rams (-125) but haunted by a Seattle spell that’s hard to shake. At 7-2 and co-leaders atop this knife-edge division, the Seahawks have shed expectations and morphed under Mike Macdonald into one of the NFC’s fiercest defensive machines - second only to the aforementioned Rams, and yielding a microscopic 19.1 points each Sunday.
Sam Darnold, overlooked and underappreciated on his way out of Minnesota, has engineered a symphony of ball security, just six interceptions and a 71.1% completion rate. Their only blemishes? A gritty, muscle-bruising opener dropped to the Niners and a wild late-game shootout against Tampa Bay. Each has underscored the thermonuclear volatility of life out West.
Make no mistake: Seattle’s fate is no riddle. Their finish is laced with divisional vengeance - matchups against the Rams (twice!), the 49ers, and the spoiler-hungry Cardinals and Panthers. The defense, a modern homage to the Legion of Boom, is young, hungry, and primed for mayhem. If Darnold continues threading needles, stat leaders like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III remain explosive, and Macdonald pulls the right psychological levers, the Seahawks are more than a +125 dark horse - they are a loaded powder keg that could go all the way.
