IEM XVI Winter Betting Tips: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. Astralis
IEM XVI Winter is the penultimate CS:GO event of the year and 16 teams are competing in it for a prize pool of $250,000. Among them are NiP and Astralis.
NiP – Astralis
This will be an exciting match to watch and the odds for it are already available on the main esports betting sites, such as Rivalry
. Both teams are in a similar position right now, having a solid core made up of veteran players but struggling to integrate the newest members into the roster.
NiP is currently ranked 6th
, although the team’s real strength might be a bit lower. Especially now that es3tag has joined, replacing LNZ. The Danish player will probably do well at NiP and will probably also give device someone to talk to in his native language. But his abilities are currently unconfirmed. Sure, he started his career almost 7 years ago and has since played for Tricked, Heroic, FPX, Astralis, Cloud9, and Complexity. But in almost every single case, he did not spend a long time in an active role in those organizations.
Analyzed separately, NiP’s core is stable and has already proved to be a formidable force in CS:GO. At the recent PGL Major, device and his crew finished 8th and defeated Astralis along the way in a very dominant manner. The final score was 16 – 1.
NiP’s best maps are Ancient (~89% win rate), Overpass (80%+ win rate), and Inferno (66%+ win rate). If the match gets played on any of these maps, their odds of winning it increase significantly. So pay attention to this aspect if you want to bet on the match live.
Astralis is a new team right now. If you haven’t watched CS:GO for a few months, just know that this is not the Astralis you knew. But the question is: will this new version of the team be better or worse? And on paper, it definitely looks worse.
The new coach is ave, whose experience as a player and coach is quite limited. His previous contract was with North but that adventure didn’t last very long and it actually ended almost 3 years ago. This means that Astralis is bringing in someone who hasn’t done this in a long time.
Of the old Astralis core, only Xyp9x and gla1ve are still around. And, of course, Bubzkji, but he is one of the newer players and it’s not yet clear how well he can play if there are no superstars to carry him to a victory.
The newest Astralis players are not completely unknown. k0nfig used to compete for North, OpTic, and Complexity, so he’s familiar with tier 1 CS:GO. blameF also comes from Complexity and Heroic. The most inexperienced member of the team seems to be Lucky, who came from Tricked Esport in August and has not yet managed to prove himself.
At PGL Major Stockholm, Astralis had a poor run
. The team struggled to survive the first stage of the tournament and ended up qualifying with 3 wins and 2 losses. But all of the competitors it defeated were weak. In the 2nd stage, where the opposition was much tougher, Astralis got eliminated rather quickly. Its final score was 1 W – 3 L. And keep in mind, this happened before the roster changes.
Some people may think that dupreeh, Magisk, and zonic, the 3 members that stopped playing for Astralis after the Major, can be replaced by relatively inexperienced players and a coach who hasn’t yet proved that he can win at this competitive level. But they’re obviously mistaken.
On Rivalry, the odds for this match heavily favor NiP and for good reason. Right now, NiP’s odds are around 1.41 while Astralis’ are 2.75. If you analyze it closely, the situation looks even grimmer for the Danish squad.
Prediction: NiP to win.
The match takes place on December 2nd, 13:00 GMT+2. To watch it, simply search for IEM’s channel on Twitch.