AC Milan-Inter Milan    (half-won)

On paper, this is only a pre-season friendly being played in Perth. However, the passing of Franco Baresi has given the derby a much deeper meaning for AC Milan.

Baresi’s funeral was held in Milan while the squad were preparing in Australia and therefore unable to attend. Alexis Saelemaekers explained before the game that Baresi always offered advice and encouragement whenever he met the younger players. He also said the squad would give everything for the legendary captain during the new season. As this is Milan’s first match since Baresi’s death, the Rossoneri’s level of commitment should not be judged in the same way as an ordinary friendly.

From a footballing perspective, Milan began their pre-season with a 2-2 draw against Celtic. Rúben Amorim’s side fell 2-0 behind in the first half before Francesco Camarda scored twice after the break. The performance exposed problems in Milan’s build-up play and defensive coordination, but their second-half response was encouraging.

Amorim will now have considerably more options available. Rafael Leão, Luka Modrić, Alexis Saelemaekers, Koni De Winter, Ardon Jashari and €70 million-plus signing Gonçalo Ramos have all arrived in Perth. Ramos is expected to make his first appearance for the club. Christian Pulisic, Mike Maignan, Adrien Rabiot and Santiago Giménez remain unavailable, so Milan are still some distance from full strength, but the quality of their available midfield and attacking options has improved significantly since the Celtic game.

Inter are further ahead in their preparations. They drew 1-1 with Manchester City in Hong Kong before winning the penalty shootout. However, Lautaro Martínez, Marcus Thuram and defensive leader Manuel Akanji have not travelled to Australia. The absence of Inter’s first-choice strike partnership should reduce their threat and finishing quality.

Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Petar Sučić and Ange-Yoan Bonny were all named among the substitutes against Manchester City, so reports describing them as confirmed absentees are inaccurate. Nevertheless, they have only recently returned to the squad and their playing time may still be carefully managed.

Inter have the advantage in terms of tactical familiarity, but Cristian Chivu has openly stated that his current priority is improving fitness and avoiding unnecessary risks, adding that friendly trophies in August carry little importance. Milan have greater emotional motivation and have welcomed back several influential players. Taking Milan +0.25 provides protection if the derby finishes level and is more sensible than backing them to win outright.

Pick: AC Milan +0.25