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A. Overeem vs. J. Rozenstruik    (lost)

Of course it's risky to bet on a 39yr old guy who has suffered a lot of bad KO losses during his career, also losing a lot of substance after getting caught for using drugs and now probably off the juice not being the beast from the past. It's risky to bet on Overeem, i defintiely do not deny that and i can understand anyone who is betting on Rozenstruik. BUT...i still go with Overeem at those odds. I think he is simply the better MMA fighter overall. Rozenstruik is a good kickboxer, maybe at this point the better kickboxer. He's a decent upcoming prospect with good credentials in kickboxing but this is MMA and not only kickboxing. I think Rozenstruik has a major weakness and that's his ground game / back game. He almost has no back game, he's useless off his back and has no idea what to do. Junior Albini was able to control him on the mat, nearly got the submission, it showed that Rozenstruik still is a very raw fighter who will have problems at a certain level. Overeem still a good wrestler, very experienced, solid ground game, heavy on top. If he is able to take Rozenstruik down and i do not see any reason why he shouldn't be able to do that, i think he has a very strong path to victory, either via GNP or Submission. I think Overeem looked really good in his last two fights. He can still crack with his hands and he has the frame to be the stronger man in the clinch. I have to go with Overeem here although i wouldn't be shocked if Rozenstruik wins via KO/TKO. But in my opinion Overeem has more and stronger paths to victory.
Published: 04-12-2019, 12:08 CET Pick: A. Overeem ML
Odds: 1.833 at Pinnacle

Category: MMA
Date: 07-12-2019
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 2 (tipster's average: 4)

KL1NCUNT 04-12-2019, 18:58
Good preview, I agree with this one and will take the same pick.
FightingBets 04-12-2019, 19:11
If I can say an advice to you guys stay away from Heavyweight in betting, weither it`s boxing or MMA, too much risk and the whole analysis of the fight can be demolished with one punch. It`s also the case in all the lowers weightclass but when two fighters of 100+ kilos are fighting the risk is improving.. And you add to that the poor stamina for 90% of them and I think you understand even more..
KL1NCUNT 05-12-2019, 23:51
Good advice for HWs and betting bro, and that is true especially for Overeem and his weak chin, but this is still good value because Overeem odds are so good against a guy without much experience. While we`re talking about HWs and how they are bad for betting, what do you think about upcoming boxing bout between Ruiz and Joshua? Any good bets there for you? I`m thinking Joshua for almost 1.50 is pretty good in this rematch, also by KO/TKO for 2.00 is nice. I can`t see this dude winning again, Anthony will fight way better and smarter this time
wise_guy 06-12-2019, 09:20
It`s not only the experience, it`s also the ground game. Ground game is a massive factor in MMA and especially in HW Division because once a big guy like Overeem is on top, you`re in trouble. Rozenstruik basically has absolutely NO ground game, is so weak off his back. And no, Joshua is no value. Ruiz style is his cryptonite. He will win again.
FightingBets 06-12-2019, 12:46
About Ruiz and Joshua to be honest I didn`t really study the fight so I am going to talk with my feelings, Joshua knocked Ruiz down at the beginning of the fight and everything was going well for Joshua until the next round when got caught.. and still believe that if this short hook in the pocket didn`t land from Ruiz the fight would have been totally different, but this is Ruiz style he has a strong chin and a strong mind so I have no doubt he will keep coming saturday. But I think the first fight can not just seen as a "lucky punch" from Ruiz because over the rounds we could clearly see that Ruiz style was making some trouble for Joshua bevause he can take a punch and is pretty fast and good on short distance in the pocket, where Joshua usually lands his hooks at short distance Ruiz is liking that too so that`s why I think he got knocked down the first time in the fight. Now Joshua is around 1.40~1.45 I advice you to not take it to be honest it`s really not worth it Joshua is coming from a loss for the first time in his career and this is not MMA this is boxing so a loss is affecting you and your career and lot more than in MMA so you don`t really know how he will come back from it and how he really feels inside his mind because he can fake it in front of the camera but only him knows inside. He might have made the adjustement for this fight and coming with a right gameplan but to be honest Joshua at around 1.40 I don`t advice you, Ruiz at 3.00 looks interesting but to be honest I am not confident he can do that one more time either, I remember his loss against Parker and to be jonest he didn`t really impressed me but it`s true that his style is causing some problems to Joshua but I am still not confident in Ruiz win here. I wanted to take a look at the over for you but the line is at 7.5 rounds and is 1.72.. so really no value here either
wise_guy 06-12-2019, 12:59
I don`t think it worked well for Joshua before the hook landed. It was a close fight in R1 and R2. I had it 19-19 after 2 rounds. Ruiz style is all wrong for Joshua imo. Pressure, good handspeed, decent power and output, awkward look of shorter and fatter guy walking you down. Joshua never had the best chin. He was dropped by a tired Klitschko, he was rocked by Povetkin and finally Ruiz finished the job. I think Ruiz didn`t lose to Parker tho. It was a damn close fight which could have gone either way and Parker is a totally different matchup. Parker also has a granite chin. He was concussed by a headbutt from Dillian Whyte and still was able to drop Whyte in the last round, nearly stopped him. Ruiz is underrated. He`s one of the sharpest and fastest puncher in the division and has underrated power. He often looked lazy in the past with guys like Liakhovich, Johnson or Lawrence but he was always a sleeper. I cashed a ticket on Ruiz Inside the Distance in the first fight so i will pass on those short odds this time. Imagine you win +1800 and lose +250 because you`re too greedy. No, i pass. I think Ruiz wins again. He will have the mental edge, he will be confident as hell and if he stays patient he can make it a close fight until he lands the big shot again. And he will. Joshua can`t avoid to fight for 12 rounds. He`s not the Campion anymore, he`s not fighting in the UK. He needs to bring something special to the table. And i don`t think he has it.
wise_guy 06-12-2019, 13:00
So if you want to bet anything, take Ruiz KO or Ruiz ML imo. But Joshua at 1.40? No way this has any value. Not 1%. If you think this is value, how you would cap him? 1.20? No way.

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