A. Overeem vs. J. Rozenstruik
Of course it's risky to bet on a 39yr old guy who has suffered a lot of bad KO losses during his career, also losing a lot of substance after getting caught for using drugs and now probably off the juice not being the beast from the past. It's risky to bet on Overeem, i defintiely do not deny that and i can understand anyone who is betting on Rozenstruik. BUT...i still go with Overeem at those odds. I think he is simply the better MMA fighter overall. Rozenstruik is a good kickboxer, maybe at this point the better kickboxer. He's a decent upcoming prospect with good credentials in kickboxing but this is MMA and not only kickboxing. I think Rozenstruik has a major weakness and that's his ground game / back game. He almost has no back game, he's useless off his back and has no idea what to do. Junior Albini was able to control him on the mat, nearly got the submission, it showed that Rozenstruik still is a very raw fighter who will have problems at a certain level. Overeem still a good wrestler, very experienced, solid ground game, heavy on top. If he is able to take Rozenstruik down and i do not see any reason why he shouldn't be able to do that, i think he has a very strong path to victory, either via GNP or Submission. I think Overeem looked really good in his last two fights. He can still crack with his hands and he has the frame to be the stronger man in the clinch. I have to go with Overeem here although i wouldn't be shocked if Rozenstruik wins via KO/TKO. But in my opinion Overeem has more and stronger paths to victory.
Published: 04-12-2019, 12:08 CET
Pick: A. Overeem ML
Odds: 1.833 at Pinnacle
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 2 (tipster's average: 4)