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I’m playing this early for several reasons. There’s already quite a bit of smart money coming in on this outcome, and when we look at the underlying numbers, both teams are significantly better offensively than defensively. These are two sides that create a lot of chances but struggle to control their matches, which often leads to open, high-scoring games.
Aalesunds FK have played four home matches this season, and three of them have gone over 3.5 goals. Looking at the xG numbers, all of those games were also comfortably above 3.0 total xG. Aalesund are averaging 1.79 xG for and 1.58 xG against at home — pretty crazy numbers.
SK Brann, on the other hand, have played five away matches, with four going comfortably over 3.5 goals as well. Brann are posting 1.60 xG for and 1.63 xG against on the road.
The teams also met in the cup a few weeks ago, and that was another very entertaining match.
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