Accrington - Salford    (won)

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An interesting match on Thursday night, where the analysis shows value in the outsider.

Accrington has 40 points, but has very good xG figures at home: 1.61 in xG for and 1.18 in xG against. They have 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 7 matches. Several of the performances have been solid, where they have beaten the weakest teams comfortably and played evenly against the best.

A couple of examples:

They lost 0–2 away to good Milton Keynes Dons, but the xG figures were 1.48–1.07 in Accrington's favor. Away against strong Walsall it ended 0–0, but Accrington won xG 1.23–1.07. They were also clearly the best in possession in both of these matches. In addition, they have brought in a new striker on loan from Bolton.

Salford have 52 points, but their away xG figures are relatively weak: 1.41–1.40. They have four straight away wins, but several of these have come against relatively weak opposition, and all the games have been even when you look at the statistics. For example, Barrow–Salford 1–2, where the xG was 1.31–1.43.

The first head-to-head match this season was also very even, and was played at Salford's home ground.

Salford are slight favourites here, but home teams take points in around 70% of the games in this league. I rate Accrington at around a 60% chance of win or draw, and see value down to around 1.65 in odds. For those who want higher odds, the Accrington draw no bet is a good option.