Al Hilal Riyadh-Al Ahli Jeddah    (won)

Pick: Al Hilal -1

Al Hilal have won all three of their league matches at the start of the new season, scoring 12 goals in total. They have also won their last four matches in all competitions. Across their last three league games, they have scored 12 and conceded only 3, averaging 4 goals per match. Their attacking numbers are equally impressive, with an average of 14 shots and 7 shots on target per game.

Although captain Salem Al-Dawsari is injured and Karim Benzema has left, Al Hilal have enough squad depth to cover those absences. After a full season of development, Simone Inzaghi’s back-three system has become increasingly well established. Rúben Neves controls the build-up, Sergej Milinković-Savić makes frequent runs into the box, while Malcom and Salem regularly attack the half-spaces. The arrivals of Summerville and Ollie Watkins have added even more pace and penetration. Watkins’ movement in behind, speed and pressing ability are particularly well suited to Al Hilal’s quick attacking style.

Al Ahli also possess plenty of attacking quality. Ivan Toney is in excellent form, scoring in each of his last two matches, including a hat-trick in one of them. Alongside Eduard Spertsyan and Trincão, he gives Al Ahli enough firepower to threaten Al Hilal, and the visitors are expected to field a relatively strong lineup.

Their main problem, however, remains the balance between attack and defence. New head coach Pušić prefers possession-based football and proactive attacking, but the departures of Riyad Mahrez and Franck Kessié have left major gaps on the right flank and in central midfield. The new arrivals have yet to fully replace their influence. In their previous match, Al Ahli suffered a surprise 1-3 away defeat to Haroud, exposing clear weaknesses in midfield protection, defensive transitions and back-line positioning. Once they push forward, the spaces behind the full-backs and between the centre-backs could be repeatedly exploited by Al Hilal’s pacey attackers.

Recent meetings between the two sides have also produced open games, including scorelines such as 3-3 and 1-1. However, Al Hilal are clearly the more settled team in terms of structure and current form. The handicap has moved sharply upwards, and although that raises the barrier for backing the favourite, Al Hilal’s home advantage and superior attacking depth still make them the more reliable side.