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Alcaraz - Vilella    (won)

Challenger Alicante

Alcaraz is predestined and his mental strength is quite impressive at just 17, which has clearly been visible this month with a lot of 3-setters brought home. It's equally impressive the way he cracks the ball with his forehand, but then you see him having a WTA serve and realize he will have to work hard on it. I think his weak serve is the main cause of his ups and downs playing close matches, you know he is now almost always a favourite against everyone at this level and therefore the plus handicap for the underdog is a valuable call in the right spots. Carlos always survived the roller coasters in Alicante, also he is coming from a winning run in Barcelona last week and is not that fresh physically. Vilella is top notch on clay at Challenger level IMO and always won with the same scoreline of 6-3 6-2 in Alicante this week, which is a tournament where he is 11-2. Alcaraz and Vilella met in Barcelona recently, Carlos won in 3 sets but Mario's many DFs (9) played their part as that match was very balanced. Now Alcaraz should be more tired and Vilella is playing in a location favourable to him, so I expect Mario to cover at least +2.5 games in this one. 
Published: 17-10-2020, 07:47 CET Pick: Vilella +2.5
Odds: 1.84 at Pinnacle


Category: ATP tennis
Date: 17-10-2020
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)




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