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Alessandria - UC Albinoleffe    (won)

Serie C, playoffs, semifinal, 2nd game.
Match will be played at 8:30 P.M.

This Serie C play-off semi-final is played by teams from one group, Group A. This is a rematch. The first one was 1: 2. It gives Alessandria a great chance for promotion, because the rules of the competition, in the case of an equal number of points and goals, give the promotion of the seeded team. In this case, Alessandria. To be successful UC Albinoleffe has to win today with a lead of 2 goals.
Alessandria is a very strong home team: 20 matches 13-3-4 goals 31:14. Albinoleffe is an unusual team because they scored more points and goals this season in away matches: 21 11-6-4 goals 32:22.
H2H statistics from 2000-2021 include 12 games: 6-3-3 goals 15:16. In Alessandria 6 matches 4-2-0 goals 8: 5. There were 3 games this season: in November Albinoleffe won 2-0 at home, in March Alessandria at home 2-1 (Albinoleffe played in 10 from 30 minutes), and 3 days ago Alessandria again, but away, 1-2.
Staff standing of the team: in the home team cannot play substitute center midfielder Giorno (14/0/0), primary right-back Parodi (32/1/0), primary middle defender Sini (11/0/0) and his substitute, defender Bellodi (14/0/0). These two absences of the central defenders are important, they forced Alessandria to change setup from 3-5-2 to 4-3-2-1 in the playoff games. The away team will play without primary midfielder Giorgione (35/6/4) because of the cards. The main forward Manconi (36/15/3), who did not play in the first match due to cards, returns to the team.
Summary: the hosts seem to be in a comfortable situation. They are leading after the first match, even a defeat by one goal gives them promotion. They are strong at home, there will be their fans at the stadium. H2H statistics also show them as favorites. However, they have problems in defense: due to the injury of 2 central defenders, they are forced to play in a different formation than in the entire season. After the last match, they lost another important defender. The guests play well on the road, better than on their own pitch. This match will be played by their most important striker, the best sniper in the league, which didn't play 3 days ago. Unfortunately, Albinoleffe is weakened by the absence of an important midfielder and it is difficult to assess whether they have a valuable replacement. Giorgione, as his statistics show, is an important Albinoleffe attacking player. However, he is more often a middle or side midfielder than in an offensive position. When I looked through the players' lineups in different Albinoleffe matches, I noticed their great versatility. In this situation, it will probably help. The guests almost always play 3-4-1-2, less often 3-4-2-1. I expect a more offensive line-up today, with two strikers. They have to make up for loosses. The situation in Alessandria's defensive also orders such tactical solutions. In the last 7 away games, Albinoleffe has always scored goals, including 2 goals in 5 this matches. For me all presented informations suggest that Albinoleffe can strike here 2 goals. Is it enough for a promotion? Of course, I don't know.
Published: 09-06-2021, 19:13 CET Pick: Albinoleffe score over 1,5 goals
Odds: 4.5 at William Hill


Category: Italian football
Date: 09-06-2021
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 4 (tipster's average: 4)




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