Argentina-Egypt    (lost)

Argentina still hold a clear overall advantage against Egypt. Both teams had difficult matches in the previous knockout round, but the quality of those wins was not the same. Egypt did not truly dominate Australia and eventually needed penalties to advance. Argentina also had to work hard, but Cape Verde have shown throughout this tournament that they can trouble stronger opponents, so Argentina’s progression carried more weight.

Another important factor is Egypt’s attitude before the match. Head coach Hossam Hassan has said his team will not simply sit deep and defend, and that they are prepared to compete with Argentina more directly. His brother Ibrahim Hassan went even further, saying Egypt are not worried about Messi and that Argentina only have one Messi, while Egypt have Salah and a group of “Messis”. That may sound confident, but against the defending champions, it could also be dangerous.

Messi may be 39, but his World Cup form remains excellent. He has already scored seven goals, level with Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland near the top of the scoring chart, and none of those goals came from penalties. Algeria also underestimated Messi earlier in the tournament and ended up losing 3-0, with Messi scoring a hat-trick. If Egypt really try to open up and attack, Argentina will have plenty of space to punish them.

In terms of squad depth, Scaloni has confirmed that Messi is ready to start. Even if Facundo Medina, who suffered cramps in the last match, is unavailable, Argentina still have experienced options such as Tagliafico. Egypt have spirit and confidence after winning a penalty shootout, but in terms of pure quality and attacking depth, Argentina are still a level above.

Pick: Argentina -1.5