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Arka Gdynia - Chrobry Glogow    (won)

Play-off for promotion to Ekstraklasa. Semifinal match, only one game. Match will be played at 8:30.

This time, I present my opinion without statistics. The bookmaker market favors Arka, and the statistics of this season show this advantage. Arka was close to a direct promotion to Ekstraklasa. Chrobry had to fight for a place in the play-offs until the last league round.
Football potential is on the side of Arka, which has been one ofe favorites to be promoted since the beginning of the season. Chrobry made a surprise to pre-season ratings, because it was shown as a typical average team of this league.
Arka will play this match in own stadium, where it can count on the support of big audience and where won most of matches. Chrobry scored majority of points at its stadium. So here we can also see the advantage of the hosts.
However, in my opinion,is not that good. Arka has the most effective offencive in the league, but Chrobry show the 2nd best defense this season. Arka has problems with teams that don't play open football and are well organized at the back. In addition, Arka will play without an important striker and without anlastly important central defender. Arka's defense is one of the worst among top league's teams. Probably due to many forced rotations in the defense formation. Today this situation will repeat itself again. To my knowledge, Chrobry will play without weakening. Two center-backs: Bougaidis and Praznovskij play a key role in the visitors' defensive formation. A few weeks ago, Bougaidis received a red card, and during his forced absence and in the next few matches,Chrobry's defense played less well. However, it is currently playing very solidly and is not losing goals again. In addition, Chrobry showed great effectiveness in the counterattack game in his last match.
Only today's match will be decisive for advancing to the final play-offs. Arka's coach said before game that his team would play differently than before. By this I mean a change of setting and better securing your own gate. But it also means less offensive power, especially as there will be no one of main strikers. But such a tactic will give Chrobry easier conditions to defend. This leads me to conclude that the away team's chances of not losing this game in basic time are greater than the bookmaker's market valuations show.
I would also like to add that this season Chrobry won both matches against Arka, as the only team in the league. In my pre-match opinion, if Arka will lose the first goal and Chrobry shows his quality in defense, the hosts will be close to losing.
Due to the above information, I consider it is a mistake to put on the obvious favorite of this match with the available bookmaker market valuations.
Published: 26-05-2022, 17:02 CET Pick: Chrobry AH (+0,5)
Odds: 2.03 at Pinnacle

Category: Polish football
Date: 26-05-2022
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 5 (tipster's average: 4)

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