Arsenal-Atletico Madrid    (void)

The first leg ended 1-1, but Atletico had the better underlying performance, leading 1.43 to 0.72 in non-penalty expected goals. That shows they were able to create more dangerous chances. However, Arsenal’s squad situation is clearly better this time. The most important boost is the return of Bukayo Saka to the starting lineup. Saka is Arsenal’s most reliable attacking outlet in settled possession. Against Fulham last weekend, he played only one half, but the difference in Arsenal’s attacking rhythm was obvious. In the first leg against Atletico, he came off the bench for just 22 minutes and completed three dribbles, which is exactly the kind of wide threat Atletico’s defense dislikes facing. Gyokeres may not always convince in big Premier League matches, but he can compete physically with Atletico’s back line. With Saka’s support in the previous group-stage meeting, he scored twice. The returns of Kai Havertz and Riccardo Calafiori also make Arsenal’s attack and left side much more complete.

Atletico’s biggest concern remains the sharp difference between their home and away performances. Their style depends heavily on pressing and physical duels, but away from home, they can easily be affected by the referee’s tolerance level. The referee for this match is Daniel Siebert. He has officiated three Arsenal Champions League matches, all won by Arsenal. He has also officiated three Atletico Champions League matches, in which Atletico recorded one draw and two defeats. In those games, he showed Atletico two red cards and awarded two penalties to their opponents. That is not an ideal profile for a team that relies so much on physical intensity. Considering Arsenal’s improved lineup, home advantage and the referee factor, the hosts should have a strong chance to take control and win this match.

Pick: Arsenal -1