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Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne - Olimpia Milano    (lost)

Euroleague » R13


Yesterday great day in EL while today nothing to immediately caught my eyes. Of course several games where it is highly expected to home favorites win but the handicaps are pretty big in all of those, so I don't feel too comfortable in backing any of those teams. Maybe Barcelona but they meets with toughest opponent among these today's road underdogs. Still, after a little bit deeper look, maybe this meeting between Asvel and Milano is the best chance for making profit.
It's the only game today where there isn't clear favorite. Milano is set for -2.5 pts and with totals siting from 151.5 and 152.5 pts. Well, about side don't have too strong opinion but under seems to me as nice play here.
Both, Asvel and Milano are in bad run as of late. The Italian team has lost the last 3 straight and 4 of the 5 while Asvel is 0-4 in previous four rounds. So, one bad streak is going to stop now. The main reason of weaker results lately was weaj offense of both teams in the mentioned period.

Milano had weak start of the season and it was mainly affected by the injuries. But then they entered in great series of results, were the hottest team in EL and for a while Milano even was a League leader (tied on the leading position if I remember well). But lately again big decline for this team and after mentioned losing streak, Milano has dropped to 7-5 overall record which was enough for tied 6-7 position before this round. The last round was especially surprising when they suffered home loss to one of the league worst, they lost in Italy to Serbian team Crvena zvezda after really poor offensive effort, 67-77. As mentioned offense was terrible in all of those last three straight losses with average of only 71 points scored. Against Cz Micov was out due to injury, also another Serbian player there, Nedovic had some small problems late in the game. Those two are very important when offense of this team is in question. Also, Luis Scola wasn't too much helpful in the paint. Not even close from some earlier games. But all that is expected when you know it is 40 y.o. veteran in question. Plus, he was involved on the World Cup recently, so he didn't had the real break and rest between the seasons. I feel, the offensive struggles of Milano could continue for a while.

As for defense, I can say it's not easy to change something in too short period of time while we know how Milano has played for years. Very fast pace, with lot of running the floor, many and successful shooting from the downtown. In NBA dictionary it was real run & gun team. So, it is not easy to change that but starting from this season with new coach Ettore Messina, seems like this team pays much more attention to defense than earlier and they play with much slower pace now. Of course there are still games when this team is involved in very high scores but I think it's only depend on the opponent. When they meet with the right one, it should be under. This lately offensively struggling Asvel IMO is ideal opponent for betting under.
 
Asvel as I mentioned earlier in some previewa is great home team. They confirmed this with opening the season perfect at home, 4-0. And those were big names beaten, both Greek giants, Olympiacos and PAO as well Russian CSKA Moscow and Spanish Baskonia. But they lost the last two home games, both from Turkish teams, Fenerbahce and Efes. On the road as expected, Asvel is not too dangerous team, their only win was in Serbia against Crvena zvezda after OT. Offensive struggles started somewhere around that match. Even with Over Time, Asvel scored back then only 74 pts. In last three straight losses, this number is even lower, only 68 pts scored per game.
The team that is owned by former NBA star Tony Parker maybe could get on the winning track today but given on recent offensive issue of both of these two teams, I like much more Under the totals in this game.
If you have the chance, take this somewhere in locals where Over Time doesn't count. 
Published: 13-12-2019, 14:12 CET Pick: Under 152.5 pts
Odds: 1.91 at William Hill


Category: European basketball
Date: 13-12-2019
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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