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Atlanta Braves - Chicago Cubs    (lost)

.



Braves are a hitting machine, mentioned a lot of times, just look back at one of the previews. Here they face Chatwood. Looking good with a 3.35 ERA but he pitched worse than that, look at that 4.19 FIP and 5.02 xFIP. On the road even worse with a 4.78 FIP and a 5.80 xFIP. now this should be problematic as Atlanta hits a .170 ISO against RHP.  That is big power indeed.

Lets see Chatwood's split:

RHB are hitting a .279 wOBA off him with a .231 SLG
LHB are hitting a .399 wOBA , .344 SLG

This is interesting since Atlanta has a lot of great LHB with Inciarte, Markakis and Freeman. Red Hot Ozzie Albies is a switch hitter. 

So teamtotal for Atlanta looks juicy, but odds dropped to 1.58 so i am looking for the Total over instead as McCarhy  got smashed in his last two outings.  He allowed 8 runs against SFG and 6 against the Fish. 

Het gets hit hard by both LHB and RHB.
Lefties: .365 wOBA, .485 SLG
Righties even harder with a .414 wOBA, .557 SLG.

Cubs have great RHB players with their superstar Bryant and Baez but also great LHB players such as Schwarber and Rizzo.

-Over is 4-1-1 in Chatwoods last 6 starts overall.
-Over is 5-0 in McCarthys last 5 starts overall.
-Over is 5-1 in Torres' last 6 games behind home plate.

I prefer the first half over a little but all totals are playable. We should see some runs here, so i am taking the over.

Published: 16-05-2018, 21:17 CET Pick: Over 9.5
Odds: 1.95 at bwin


Category: MLB baseball
Date: 17-05-2018
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)



gizmozch 17-05-2018, 00:05
this one pick was one of my couples too, i like it, gl with your choice

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