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Australia vs. Argentina [Rugby Championship]    (won)

SPORT: RUGBY.

COUNTRY: INTERNATIONAL (AUSTRALIA).

CATEGORY: RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP.

ROUND: 4TH.

GAME: AUSTRALIA VS. ARGENTINA.

VENUE: Cbus Super Stadium.

CITY: Gold Coast.

DATE: SATURDAY 15TH, 2018.

TIME: 12:00 CEST (07:00 ART).

 

ANALYSIS:

 

- Australia is in a bad shape. They won their last game against South Africa, but they lost their previous 4 games in a row (3 of them as home team).

 

- They didn't play well last Saturday, and they could have lost the game in the last minutes. The TMO didn`t validate a South Africa's try in the 78th minute.

 

- This year, they average of points (less than 20 points by game) is significantly lower than last year (31.1 points by game).

 

- Two of their key players, Israel Foulau and David Pocock, will play again but probably they won't be physically at 100%.

 

- Foulau won't play in its natural position (full-back). He'll play as wing.

 

- The number 10, Kurtley Beale, is a great player but that isn't its natural position. He normally plays as inside (number 12). This fact can give problems to the Australian's game.

 

- The Wallabies lost their 2 matches against the All Blacks by 25 and 28 points. However, last week the Argentinian Pumas reached the 70th minute with a gap of only 8 points against the same rival. Also, before the half time, the referee didn't validate a try for the Pumas that seemed to be legitimate.

 

- The Argentinian's manager, Mario Ledesma, preserve some key players last week:

 

  o The medio-scrum Gonzalo Bertranou wasn't even at the bench.

 

  o The Jaguares' captain, Pablo Matera, only entered in the second half.

 

  o All the front line, including the captain Agustín Creevy, was changed a few minutes after the half time.

 

- On September 2017, the Argentinian Mario Ledesma was the scrum trainer of the Wallabies. He was 2 years helping the head coach Michael Cheika. So, it's a big advantage for the Pumas.

 

- In the last games, one of the main problems of the Argentinians was the scrum. However, the Wallabies' scrum isn't as powerful as the All Blacks' or Springbok's one. Also, Ledesma was the scrum trainer for the Australians last years.

 

- The Argentinians were in Oceania for more than 15 days. So, they should be well acclimated (the jet-lag effects would be minimal).

 

- The Pumas are in their best moment after won 32-19 against South Africa, they broke a streak of 11 consecutive defeats in the Rugby Championship. They lost against the All Blacks last week, but they didn't play badly and they scored 3 tries (the maximum in New Zealand's soil).

 

- The Argentinian players are the same that have played by Jaguares the last years. So, they know each other very well.

 

- The manager, Mario Ledesma, is also the same of the Jaguares squad that reached the quarter-finals for first time this year.

 

- Also, this year the Jaguares achieved their first win in New Zealand's soil. This year, they weren't beaten in Oceania: they won all their 4 games (2 against New Zealand's franchises and 2 against Australian's teams).

 

- This year in the Super Rugby tournament, these players faced 4 times against Australian franchises, and they won 3 of these matches (2 of them in Australian's soil).

 

- Australia was the first "victim" of the Pumas in the Rugby Championship. On October 3rd, 2015, Argentina won 21-17, after comeback from a 0-14 score.

 

HEAD TO HEAD:

 

- Last year, the Australians won both games. However, at this moment, both teams are playing very different, and it's difficult to repeat the score of the last year (45-20).

 

NOTE 1: The handicap cover us from an Australian victory by 2 tries (5 points each), plus a conversion of one of them (2 points).

Published: 13-09-2018, 17:26 CET Pick: 2 HA+12.5
Odds: 1.73 at Unibet


Category: Rugby Union
Date: 15-09-2018
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)



mguille 15-09-2018, 15:51
Argentina won 23-19 despite the horrible performance of the referee.

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