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Australian Open    (lost)

Occasional outright pick.

Considering the prices on top players as well as the actuall draw, I can't see a better player to back here. Yes, the question is does Zverev actually has the capacity to win the slam since he missed his chances so many times, the best one being against Thiem in Corona Time USO, but I really have a good feeling looking at all the factors. Starting from his projected draw, which looks like this:

R1: Pouille
R2: Martinez
R3: Baez
R4: Humbert
QF: Ruud
SF: Alcaraz/Djokovic
F: Sinner

I think Sacha has a walk in the park draw till SF as I can't see neither of these players giving him a hard time. We might see occasional 5 set typical Zverev match, maybe with Humbert, but Ugo is not capable producing continuous performance in best out of 5. Now, the real test comes in SF, however I think neither Alcaraz or Novak are in their best shape. We haven't seen yet from Carlos, so I don't really know in what kind of form he is, but he tends to have his on and off times often. He recently changed his racket (took the heavier one) so it might take some time adjusting. There is also a potential threat in his Q named Draper (if healthy). As for Novak, he announced a strong '25 with attacking more tournaments than last year and although he CAN NOT be written off under ANY circumtances EVER, I can't see he battling 2 tough matches on SLAM in a row. That leaves Sinner in the final who is realisticly the favourite to win, BUT as with Carlos he didn't play tennis this year so far. In addition, his doping case might be reopened, directly after AO and according to Roddick, he is facing a 6-month suspension. So, dark clouds again above his head, right after he tought it was over. Something he will have in the back of his mind for sure. And has landmines like Rune and Fritz in his draw as well.

What solidifies this for me is the fact Zverev has positive h2h both with Alcaraz (6-5, won last year in QF) and Sinner (4-2), leading 2-1 against Jannik on GS and having 2-2 against Carlos (could lead if not for that unfortunate Roland Garros loss). He knows how to play them, what he is supposed to do and now, under Becker as his coach, he can for sure improve his net game which was always kinda his weak spot. Although Zverev has the tendency to choke and screw up like many times so far, the fact remains that he is one of the most consistent players on the ATP and has one of the highest % when it comes to holding serve. He actually got some matches in his legs unlike Carlos and Sinner, was scheduled to play Brisbane as well, but withdrew due to a minor bicep strain (nothing to worry about, had a practice match with Novak, all good).

All in all, at this price I will back Zverev where the cashout possibility will also be an option if he disposes of his rivals as projected untill QF. But he has a decent chance to lift the trophy here as well.


Published: 11-01-2025, 10:05 CET Pick: Zverev to win
Odds: 11 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: ATP tennis
Date: 12-01-2025
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 8 (tipster's average: 10)


The_Tabak 12-01-2025, 18:00
Interesting bet. It`s worth taking.
DelRio 12-01-2025, 20:42
He`ll have to raise his game by a LOT looking at today`s match if he wants to do something :)
No1Flash 24-01-2025, 10:56
Nice one, good cooperation man
DelRio 24-01-2025, 12:04
Let me give some summary :) As expected, Zverev flew to SF without not so much sweat, however his match vs Paul could`ve been different if the american actually had some tennis IQ. Nevertheless, what was (supposed to be) the biggest obstacle, moved out of the way and with a certain dose of luck, there he is, in the final. But not playing the full match could have some blowback, we`ll see, I can`t complain. The thing is, that Zverev after a long time, actually didn`t play any 5 setters as he usualy tends to do in earlier stages, which is always a good thing. His game could`ve been better, but I feel he played as much as he needed, so he will be on 110% energy and fitness on Sunday. The task is obviously difficult one, but NOT impossible. Zverev has 4-2 lead, 2-1 on Grand Slams and could`ve won their last meeting in Cinci, it was a very tight match. Sinner plays almost robotic, makes little mistakes, his shots are deep and fast, so again, it will be a very difficult day in the office, which is logicaly expected in the final of a major. But in order for Zverev to win, he`ll have to raise his game and to actually bring some balls finaly as he choked his previous 2 Slam finals. Could`ve win vs Thiem in 2020, could`ve win vs Alcaraz last year and I think now he has enough experience and knows what to do in order to break this curse. Me personaly, will not cash this out, I wanna follow up on the final, but as said in the analysis, you could already make money even without sweating on Sunday.
qmauri 24-01-2025, 16:15
Great call whatever happen in the final. Thanks
DelRio 24-01-2025, 18:15
Thanks bro :)
spkutano 24-01-2025, 18:58
Good anticipation, Zverev reached the final. Sinner is favorite, but Zverev has a chance. Good luck
drink 26-01-2025, 10:30
Zverev can win only if sinner retire
Cesur 26-01-2025, 12:20
It`s getting pathetic how bad Zverev plays grand slam finals. I think Sinner got lucky that Novak is injured
drink 26-01-2025, 12:31
Sinner is also injured and hes class above, you cant win injured sinner with passive game
DelRio 26-01-2025, 12:34
Yep, dreadful display and yet again, 0 agression. Pitty that a guy who has all the weapons, doesn`t use them. He would lose this more convincing if it wasn`t for the serve. Net game- sad as usual.

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