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BCM Gravelines Dunkerque Grand Littoral - Élan Béarnais Pau-Lacq-Orthez    (won)

Last round in the French League and we will make one more bet before the Regular Season ends .

Because the scenario is that the the Home Team the BCM Gravelines need to win to 100% secure the spot in the first Division BUT the only Way for the Gravelines to be relegated is when their lose is if Chalon wins at Orleans where Chalon is the underdogs with a odd of 4.23 and their also need Roanne to win against one of the best if not the best team in the League in Asvel who are the favourite with 1.11 odds .This is the scenario according to this link : https://www.lavoixdunord.fr/1026728/article/2021-06-14/basket-gravelines-bout-de-nerfs-quel-est-le-scenario-qui-peut-envoyer-le-bcm-en 

What strange is that the Orleans-Chalon game is played 30 minutes earlier so the Gravelines can be secured when their Game is still going on but of course the Gravelines will still try to just focus on their Game here and try to win.So you might remember our bet on Gravelines 2 weeks ago against the worst Team in the League in Boulazac and I said when I learned on thing in my 8 years of betting you should rely more on the Team who plays for something and in this Case if have to go against that because Pau Orthez can't make the playoffs or be relegated but later more about them.So we made the bet 12 days ago on the away Win for the Gravelines because they played the Team who where just officially relegated and that was the main reason for that bet and yes i said that even though the Gravelines lost their by far best player in every aspect of Scoring creating and also in terms of defense impact in Ex Nba Player Briante Weber that their still have Quality guys but know one of these Quality guys is also injured which is also included in the link i posted its says A workforce still decimated. Pope Sy not being restored, Gravelines will align the same troops swept by Monaco and ASVEL. And as Pau-Orthez displays a form of thunder (six wins in a row),
t will be very complicated. There is nothing more than to hope for an exploit or a helping hand from Roanne or Orleans.And of course i watched the match when we bet on them but to be honest they didn't win because of the Quality of their players or the new Coach they also have for sometime know and they play a little bit better they Won because Boulazac is absolutely terrible and they were also without 2 of their best scoring players in Flowers and Wells even though i say Boulazac are playing a little bit better offense in terms of ball moving and being not as predictable I think if one Flowers or Wells would have played we might lose this bet back then but thankfully we didn't.I also mentioned considering their remaining schedule the Gravelines needs to win this and I was right because after that of course they lost the next 3 games against Limoges,Monaco and Avsel of course those are good teams but they numbers and offense they produce is just so bad and both Guards in Davis and Nikolic can't really create many good shots for the team and its not their fault because the offense is not good enough in every aspect so even though they need this win more I still have to go with Pau-Orthez .Pau-Orthez had a horror start to the season and where one of the main candidate teams to be relegated so after an 3-10 start they had to fire their Head Coach after 10 long years which is very rare in Europe that a Coach is that long coaching one Team.And after that the new head Coach in Bartecheky took over they went 12-7 with him as a head Coach including 6 wins in a row.He is still in danger of losing his Job because their is a huge Usa Company interested in buying this club and increase their budget and also get a prominent Coaching Name according to this link in Vincent Collet who is an Ex-Euroleague Coach and also the current head Coach of the Men's National Team of France.https://www.bebasket.fr/championnat-jeep-elite/anthony-brown-dans-le-viseur-de-l-elan-bearnais--cornelie-et-bibbins-priorites-pour-l-effectif-2021-22.html Why do I all tell you this is because you can saw in the last few games since they are safe from relegation they still play with a lot energy and I believe they want to win one more Game to finish the season with 7 wins in a row .Since they are safe they extend the rotation a little bit more and playing their best play a little bit less minutes but in this crazy schedule it looks like it even helps them because when  you play every 3 days its good to have fresh legs and it's still some good production he is getting from them.They have great shooters in Threatt ,Willams ,Sanford and a very good French player who will have good offers after the Season in Cornelie who had 14 points and 25 rebounds in the last game which is the most rebounds a French player ever had in the LNB and also the 4th best overall and they have another good Scoring guard in Bibbins so the quality is so much better in the first 5 positions than the opponent and also their bench guys can play at the Level so I hope they are hungry for one more win and finish the season in style which also can give the Coach some positive arguments for this Job or a different Head Coach Job so it's also in his best Interest to continue playing the best players around 26 minutes.Which also was good to see that he always had 2 good guards out there when the younger players where on the field so he move Bibbins and Sanford to the bench  so they always had enough creativity on the field and i have to add one more argument they played their first meeting just 17 days ago and Pau Orthez won that 80-64 also using a 10 Man rotation he played the best players around 30 minutes there so if he will not change everything today and keep the Minutes like he did in the last game I think the odds are way to high for an away win here .My Fair Win probability is at 62 % for the away Team here so fair odds would be 1.61 for me so everything till 1.71 has enough Value I will even bet the -1 because if they win It should be by more than just 1 point so that gives us that extra odds boost of 0.04 and I will take that so every bet -1 till 1.71 is also good because in the worst case we still would get our cash back in case of a 1 point Victory.
Published: 15-06-2021, 02:44 CET Pick: Élan Béarnais Pau-Lacq-Orthez -1 AH (FT)
Odds: 1.85 at Pinnacle

Category: French basketball
Date: 15-06-2021
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)

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