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Baltimore - Boston    (lost)

Busting my balls all day long whether to take the ML or the over...so in the end I am taking both for a stake each. Here I will post the over, so let me explain...


Bookies are reacting with this line like this is the Old Sale. Nope, despite his big 11.33 K/9, he has a 4+ ERA of 4.42. He has allowed in 3 outings more than 4 runs. Guess against Who? Yep, this O's team whooped Sale as he owns an ERA of 13.50 (!) with a 2.25 WHIP and 3.8 HR/9. Sale allowed two weeks ago 6 runs against Balty. So this reason alone is enough for the over. Injuries are killing the (former) ACE, he is barely healthy and every top team will think twice before they will sign this fallen Ace. 

On the other side, we have RHP Kremer. An ERA of 4.25 and an ERA of 4.62 at home. Still, he is 7-2 at home so his offense must have helped a lot right? Indeed, the O's score 5.81 runs per game for him. Kremer with a 9.35 ERA (2 outings) vs. Boston this season.

This Balty team has been the best team this year. Nobody was expecting this. Of course, there were signs, I wrote about this, but this good I was not expecting. They remind me of Kansas some years ago, solid offense, consistent and their pitching staff is all doing the minimum as some guys stepped up. No stars, but guys stepping up is the key.

Balty needs one more win to clinch the division. 
Published: 28-09-2023, 23:50 CET Pick: Over 7.5
Odds: 2.03 at Pinnacle


Category: MLB baseball
Date: 29-09-2023
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)



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