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Baskets Bonn - Hamburg Towers    (lost)

My Calculations for this one gives Bonn 65 % Chances of Winning and the Towers 35 % .So my fair odds would be around 2,86 for a Towers win ,so the 3,22 gives me value as well as the Handicap is too high .Normally I like to play it safe but in this case it's worth to play 2 bets I will take 1 % on the Handicap but also put 0,5 % on a Towers win here .Let me explain ,its game 1 of the playoffs ,in the regular season Hamburg won 92-80 in Bonn and when Bonn beat hamburg 73-85 in Hamburg we took nice odds back then on Bonn.Bonn will most likely be again with Season MVP Carter Jackson Cartwright after he returned last week after not playing for 4 weeks because of the death of his father,even though he was not seen in yesterday's training sessions and Coach Isalo said it's not clear if he will use him Game 1 ,I believe he is playing mind games and even though he missed some time,it would be good for our bet if he is not playing but the calculations are based of him playing.But other scoring Guard Morgan 14 Points per game is still injured and should miss the match ,Bonn has 8 import players in their roster and only 6 are allowed to be registered for a match anyway,so even if Cartwright and Morgan will not play they have a strong rotation but not as good as without them.Now first let's look at Hamburg ,one BBL expert recently said it well  the backcourt Duo of Brown and Homesley and Brown can beat teams on their own but sometimes they beat their own team by themselves ,both players are taking combined 15,3 Point attempts from the 3 point line per game with around 5,2 makes which isn't great but if they can hit that average the will have a chance here and if they hit above it they have a very good chance ,because they also have the best Center with Kotsar on the floor who can dominate the pick and Roll on the offense with Point Guard Hollatz ,Bonn has more depth there on center with Kratzer ,Kessens and they could also make trouble for the Towers defense  if they use Kulvietis as a center because he can shoot and then Kotsar will be taking out the paint but on the other side Hamburg would also dominate them as Kulvietis has no chance against Kotsar.Overall I believe the Towers have enough to compete with this Bonn team on a normal day and that's why I see good value in this bet ,for now I will bet 1% on the +6 handicap as well as 0,5 % on the Towers win  

Published: 13-05-2022, 13:48 CET Pick: Hamburg Towers ML (FT)
Odds: 3.22 at Pinnacle

Category: German basketball
Date: 13-05-2022
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)

ROYALWETTEN 13-05-2022, 21:05
unreal stuff dont know what do about these chokes anymore
ROYALWETTEN 13-05-2022, 21:15
hahahahahahahah pure comedy

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