As said also in previous round when Cz was away in Lithuania against Zalgiris, the Serbian team is one of two worst in EL. After that loss they are now at 7-18 which is really embarrassing considering the money invested in this team. Coach change didn't bring any good, it's even worst now I would say. So Euroleague is practically over for them and these games they can use only to prepare for the finish of ABA league.
Injuries and especially Covid 19 did its part too. They were heavily weakened as of late. Today they should have Walden back in the roster but I doubt it could be with high minutes. In any case, roster is still too far from being healthy. Plus O'Brayant got fired as I mentioned in the preview for game against Zalgiris.
Baskonia is only one win below playoffs line, still with couple more games played than those teams just above the line. In any case, Baskonia in theory still is alive for the postseason, so against opponents like this one today, they simply must take the job done.
First mutual meeting in Serbia early in the season was disaster for Spanish team. So hopefully they still remember that cause now is ideal chance for revenge.
I'm going with this IMO low risk HT-FT bet.