Beijing - Shanghai    (lost)

From the regular-season perspective, Shanghai Jiushi finished first with a 38-4 record, averaging 100.1 points scored and 83.5 points allowed per game. Beijing BAIC ranked fourth with a 29-13 record, averaging 90.5 points scored and 82.4 points allowed per game. Based on their regular-season offensive numbers, the two teams’ combined scoring level is already close to 190 points. Even with the higher intensity of the playoffs, the 177.5 total line still does not look high.

The first two games of this series also show that the pace is moving toward an over trend. In Game 1, Shanghai beat Beijing 87-82, with a total of 169 points. Shanghai once led by 20 points, while Beijing cut the deficit to just 1 point in the final quarter. The tempo of that game was not slow; the lower total was more due to both teams’ shooting efficiency and early tactical adjustments in the opening game. In that matchup, Lofton had 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists for Shanghai, Zhang Zhenlin added 17 points, 2 rebounds, and 5 assists, while Goodwin scored 15 points. For Beijing, Zhao Rui had 14 points and 5 assists, Williams scored 14 points, Zhou Qi recorded 13 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks, Germain added 11 points, and McGee contributed 10 points and 7 rebounds. Both sides already showed fairly balanced scoring options.

Game 2 directly reached 187 total points, with Beijing winning 99-88 on the road. Beijing’s offense clearly opened up in that game. Chen Yingjun scored 26 points, Germain had 22 points and 6 assists, Zhao Rui added 15 points, Zhou Qi posted 11 points and 10 rebounds, and Zeng Fanbo scored 10 points. Five Beijing players scored in double figures, and the team shot 14-for-28 from three-point range, reaching 50%. Once Chen Yingjun, Zhao Rui, and Germain all find rhythm at the same time, Beijing’s offensive ceiling is very high.

Although Shanghai lost Game 2, Goodwin still delivered 32 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists, Li Hongquan scored 16 points, Wang Zhelin added 12 points, and Lofton had 11 points with 7 assists. Their main problem was three-point shooting, as the team made only 9 of 35 attempts from beyond the arc. If their outside shooting improves even slightly in Game 3, Shanghai still have a good chance to get back to around 90 points. In terms of key playoff contributors, Goodwin is averaging 18.5 points and 6.0 assists, Lofton is averaging 13.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists, Zhang Zhenlin is averaging 12.3 points, and Wang Zhelin is averaging 10.0 points. Shanghai have enough scoring options.

After winning on the road, Beijing have regained home-court advantage and should be full of confidence. Shanghai, on the other hand, must fight to take that advantage back. Neither team has much reason to play conservatively. As long as both sides shoot at a normal level, this should be an entertaining and high-scoring game.

PICK: Over 177.5