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Besiktas (Tur) - LASK Linz (Aut)    (won)

To be honest I can find more reasons to bet on over here, but the opening and currently odds made me question a few things about this game.
At the first sight this seems to go with ease over the 2.5 margin. I mean we have Besiktas, a team that last season played in the last 16 round in the Champions League and LASK Linz a team that last season was newly promoted in the Austrian Bundesliga yet they still managed to qualify for Europe. Sure, this is of no surprise as the quality of their championship is doubtful (beside Salzburg, of course).

I would understand if European bookies would price this game at 1.85 for over 2.5 or 2.00 for Besiktas -1.5.
But odds over 1.80 were on the Asian market for over 2.5 which doesn't sounds right, I mean not all bookies can make the same mistake for a game in Europa League, if it were somewhere in a less popular league then yes,  and besides that it's Besiktas not some Turkish club playing for the first time in Europe.

Point is odds were too good to be true, still are for Besiktas -1.5 at 2.00 but when things seem too good to be true it usually ends up in the other direction.
A lot of betting for over has gone for this game and line is now at 2.75 and will probably get at 3.0 at the beginning of the game, a much more normal line if you ask me.
For this game I would use starting odds at  3.0 for under/over and -1.75 or even -2.0 for Besiktas at handicap.

So basically I'm going against the majority here, bookies do have the tendency to know what they are doing and are in most cases right, if not then they would not exist because the profit wouldn't be enough or inexistent. 

Both teams did not lost a lot of players this summer, both lost their main goalkeepers, Besiktas also lost Tosic (25 games/5goals/centre back) and Talisca (33/14/attacking midfielder). LASK beside their main goalkeeper lost centre forward Berisha(18/5).

Besides the fishy things regarding the odds I think a good argument for under would be the fact that Besiktas is at their first official game of the season. I'm not taking in account the two games against Torshvan because let's face it, they could not beat Besiktas 3rd team while Linz already played some competitive games against Lillestrom,Salzburg and Polten so if Besiktas takes this one easily it can end up bad for them.
Published: 09-08-2018, 18:06 CET Pick: Under 2.75 goals
Odds: 1.97 at Pinnacle


Category: European football
Date: 09-08-2018
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)



Droc 09-08-2018, 21:54
Nailed it
drink 09-08-2018, 22:03
gj

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