Bodo vs Union Saint Gilloise    (lost)

The 3-3 draw in the first leg leaves the tie completely open and creates a favourable context for Bodø/Glimt. There is no advantage to protect and no team forced to take risks from the first minute, which allows Bodø to look for their usual game: aggressive possession, short circulation, many interior support options and quick accelerations when they find the opponent disorganised. Patrick Berg remains the key piece in build-up, giving quality to the first phase and allowing the team to settle in the opposition half.

The first leg clearly showed both sides of this reading. Bodø managed to reach dangerous areas several times and scored through a set piece, a penalty and late pressure, but they also allowed Union to exploit the wide areas, attack space and punish moments of disorganisation.

Union will probably have longer periods without the ball in Norway and, if they keep their structure with three centre-backs and wing-backs, they will face a dilemma: dropping too deep allows Bodø to accumulate players near the box; stepping higher to press opens space in behind for the Norwegians’ quick combinations. With the aggregate score level, the Belgian side are unlikely to spend the whole match in a very low block. A Bodø goal would force Union to come out more and could open the type of scenario in which the home side’s favouritism has greater room to turn into a two-goal margin.

Bodø arrive in strong form in the Norwegian league, with 13 wins, two draws and two defeats from 17 rounds, 43 goals scored and only 12 conceded, as well as a run of five straight league wins.

Union, meanwhile, responded to the European draw with a 5-1 away win over Westerlo and have several dangerous attacking options, such as Raul Florucz, Fuseini, Guilherme and Promise David. Their ability to accelerate down the flanks and attack depth is the main risk of the bet, especially if Bodø lose balls with their full-backs pushed high. Still, given the context of the tie, the home factor, competitive rhythm and Bodø’s ability to press and accumulate attacks at home, the -1 handicap makes sense.

Fair odds: @1.85.