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After moving to a back-four system—the setup Vanoli is most comfortable with—Fiorentina have shown a noticeable rebound: in their last five games across all competitions they are 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss. Importantly, the only defeat came against Parma when they were still using the 3-5-2; in the other four matches where they lined up with a back four, they have remained unbeaten. This suggests the change is not a short-term experiment but a structural upgrade in stability. In the table, they are also only 3 points away from the relegation zone, so the urgency to collect points is obvious.
A major external factor is the sudden passing of Fiorentina owner Commisso. Over the past six and a half years, he invested heavily in the club and earned strong public respect. In many cases, such an event lifts unity and intensity, making Fiorentina’s attitude and commitment more reliable. There is also a psychological layer: Bologna coach Italiano has a very close bond with Commisso and rose to prominence with Fiorentina, so this emotional timing can subtly influence the match context.
Pick:Fiorentina +0.25
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