Bosnia - Austria    (lost)

A very interesting match from the World Cup qualifiers on Tuesday, where I think an away team Austria has been made a bit too big favorites against a strong home team. Both teams have won their first  matches in the qualifiers, and the two matches between them here will be pure finals. Austria can probably live well with a draw and can decide the group at home.

Bosnia is a solid team and recently played a draw against the Netherlands, as well as a narrow loss against Germany in an even match (xG 0.61–1.25), where Bosnia won the corner statistics, among other things. Austria is a decent team, but has not impressed lately – especially not on the away field. They have only won two of their last five away matches, and that was against weak San Marino and Kazakhstan. On Saturday they took a slightly lucky 1–0 win against Cyprus, in a match where Cyprus actually had most of the statistics on their side, including xG (1.59–1.42). In other words, a completely even match.

Austria are favourites, but against a strong home team it is far from a given that they will win here. I give Bosnia at least a 48% chance of points and see value down to 2.02.

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