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Boston Celtics - Miami Heat    (lost)

Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals

My opinion was and still is that who ever wins in Celtics/Raptors series is going to be favourite in finals against Miami Heat. All credits for Heat's 8-1 in the postseason but no one can convince me that Indiana Pacers were more difficult opponent than Philadelphia 76ers who by the way also have been swept in series with Boston. Especially no one can convince me that Milwaukee Bucks were more difficult opponent than defending champion Toronto Raptors. Even if Giannis was healthy for whole series, I would still say Boston had more difficult opposition. 
That being said, if you switch position of these two teams in the playoffs draw, IMO Boston would still be here in the finals while I'm not so sure Miami would. 

Miami could be in small advantage in this G1 due to fact they are more fresh. Namely they finished SF a little bit earlier while Celtics had to play all 7 against Toronto. But you know, this always can be analyzed also from the angle of being rusty now. So in fact this scenario could be favoring the Celtics.
In any case, IMO the bookies are not giving too big respect to Boston given on the odds for G1. I expected them to be a little bit bigger favourite. It was almost pk game while now slowly the line moving in favour of Boston and that's the correct move if you ask me. 
I could take money line option on Boston @1.85 or the current handicap which is -1.5 to -2 pts. But let's try with this alternative handicap for way better value cause that's IMO where the initial line should be.
Published: 15-09-2020, 13:56 CET Pick: Boston -4.5
Odds: 2.48 at Pinnacle


Category: NBA basketball
Date: 15-09-2020
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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