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Brewers - Dodgers    (lost)

Craig Counsell finally made up his mind about who will start in game 1. Gio Gonzalez starting finally. Suprising at one side as it is not his best season, but it also makes sense. He goes obviously for the lefty-lefty matchup for a reason.

Indeed, Dodgers are monsterous against RHP, but not THAT good against LHP.

Dodgers are the 2nd best team against RHP in advanced stats.

Against Southpaws the Dodgers are ranked 14th with a 3.17 wOBA ( .341 wOBA vs RHP and much more power against RHP-1st).

LHP Gio Gonzalez was not at his best with the Nats this season but his trade became also like a medicine for him. As A Brewer he is 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA. He pitched worse but still solid enough> 7.82 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 43.9 GB%.

If we look to recent years, he has been more than solid against the Dodgers...

2015 8 IP: 0.00 ERA> 1.00 WHIP

2016 6 IP: 1.50 ERA> 0.83 WHIP

2017 6 IP: 3.00 ERA> 1.00 WHIP

For LAD Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Forget about every Dodger, he is still their best pitcher by far. 2.73 season ERA with a 8.65 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 47.9 GB%.

Like always he has been much better in the 2nd half of the season.

July: 1.95 ERA> 1.39 BB/9, 52.8GB%.

August : 2.06 ERA> 8.49 K/9, 0.77 BB/9 (!).

He started the postseason in an amazing way. He blanked the Braves in 8 innings with a 0.25 WHIP. Just 3 SO but a lot of weak contact made him cruise till the 8th without a problem.

Moreover, he owned the Brewers this season with a 2.25 ERA> 9.0 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 in 12 innings pitched.

But also last year with a 18.0 K/9 (!), 0.43 WHIP. And in 2015 a 0.68 WHIP against the Crew.

Under is 5-0-1 in Kershaws last 6 road starts vs. Brewers.

Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 overall.

I think the Brewers have a much better chance than the odds suggest with that scary bullpen. But under is my first choice.

Published: 12-10-2018, 00:09 CET Pick: Under 8.0
Odds: 1.71 at Pinnacle


Category: MLB baseball
Date: 13-10-2018
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 8 (tipster's average: 9)




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