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TheWooooo
 
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Bucs @ Saints    (lost)

I  dont agree with the recent line movement in favor of the Bucs.  Hill and Murray are likely to be out today but i dont think this will be a big issue for the Saints, because Murray is only the back up RB and Hill the back up QB. I get that Hill sometimes gets some snaps in the red zone but i think that Brees is the more dangerous player, because he has such a great accuracy. The Saints won the two meetings in the regular season but i would not value these games a lot, because the Bucs have looked better in the last games. I stil think the Saints are the most complete team in the NFL, their defense is just elite and they will cause some trouble for Brady today. Trey Hendrickson is good to go which is important and i could see him having a sack or two. The Saints offense might not be very explosive, but Brees is able to move the ball consistently, and he can sustain long drives. I think the only unit today which is just average is the Bucs defense. They looked good in the first games, but since then they had some meh games and all in all there wont be many stops for them today.  Another interested fact is that the Saints are the team who lost the most yards due to penalties (-458 net), while the Bucs profited the most from it (+301 net). Over the long run this should even out at least to a certain degree so i like the Saints here, they have the hfa as well which is about a point imo. I know its tough going against Brady in the playoffs but at this odds i have to play the Saints. Tip is 24-20.
Published: 17-01-2021, 18:09 CET Pick: Saints-2.5
Odds: 1.877 at Pinnacle


Category: NFL football
Date: 17-01-2021
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 6 (tipster's average: 5)



TheWooooo 17-01-2021, 18:13
under 52.5 @ 2 looks good as well
TheWooooo 18-01-2021, 03:37
21 points off turnovers gg
TheWooooo 18-01-2021, 03:59
should be something like 24 14 saints but packers-3 hwre we go

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