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Budućnost - Crvena zvezda    (won)

Game 4 in ABA finals. CZ is 2-1. In all three meetings the team who was the host, won the game.
So, Buducnost survived and IMO they could win this Game 4 too. But unlike in previous meeting, now we don't have any points on Buducnost. In Game 3 initial was +1.5, closed around - 4 pts. Now Buducnost is favorite right away. And that's now the role where I don't like Buducnost. As underdog yes, but when need to win by margin, no.
I must say Buducnost was disappointing in this series. Two huge losses in Belgrade although CZ is without first playmaker, Regland. In Game 3 the Serbian team was without another important player, Perperoglou.
Buducnost has high quality but seems like there isn't the best chemistry in the team.
So although I'm leaning towards home win in Game 4, I'll skip it. 
But I like over the totals. Both of the first two were easy over. Game 3 remained under but on unbelievable way (high 95 pts at halftime, but offered 158.5 back then wasn't reached). Note CZ had big 2nd half decline back then.
This time we have 2 to 3 pts adjustments. IMO this is wrong. Game 3 was everything but a low scoring game, no matter what final result show. Beside Game 3, counting also the first two in this finals, plus the two regular season meetings, plus Super Cup game, over is 5-1 in all mutual meetings this season. 

I also this this Game 4 is going to be the first one where there won't be early decided winner. IMO for the first time this is going to be one to two possessions game, some extra points late in penalty free throw finish. 

Published: 18-04-2019, 13:57 CET Pick: Over 155.5
Odds: 1.87 at 1xbet


Category: European basketball
Date: 19-04-2019
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)



FairPlayBet 19-04-2019, 21:06
Buducnost covered & easy over the totals.

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