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Burton - Aston Villa    (won)

Burton finished last season in League One on 10th position. In 7 out of their last 9 games in the 2019/20 season we saw at least 3 goals. They started this season with efficient games again - 1:1 against Accrington, 3:3 against Peterborough in EFL Trophy, and 1:2 defeat against Fleetwood in the League One 1st round. Last season they were eliminated from Northampton (2:4) in FA Cup while in the Carabao Cup they reached 1/8 finals (Leicester defeated them 1:3). They are a team that is capable of scoring goals but also they know to concede a lot.  

For Aston Villa this will be the first match in the 2020/21 season. Although it's cup competition, their head coach Smith has promised to take the league cup seriously once again. Last season in this Carabao Cup they eliminated Crewe (6:1), Brighton (3:1), Wolves (2:1), Liverpool (5:0), Leicester (1:1, 2:1) before losing against Manchester City in the final. As you can see in every round we saw high scoring games. When I saw in "Birmingham Live" their today's possible lineup, I knew I would bet on over 2,5 goals here. Their reserve goalkeeper Steer should start here. Also, they probably will rotate their pair of center backs so Engels and Hause could start. In midfield, we should see a mix of standard and rotation players. I read that their biggest signing this season Ollie Watkins (last season 49/26 in Championship) should get at least 60 minutes here because he hasn't had much of a pre-season. Aston Villa is a huge favorite here and they simply must score at least 2 goals. 

Their head coach, Dean Smith, at the press conference said: "As I've said many times before it's a competition we take seriously. We got to the final last season and got beat narrowly by Manchester City. It's something Aston Villa have got a great tradition in and we'll look to continue that".

Aston Villa's possible lineup: Steer; Guilbert, Engels, Hause, Taylor; Nakamba, Jacob Ramsey, McGinn; Jota, Watkins, El Ghazi

Conclusion: There is a big quality gap between League One team and Premier League team. Aston Villa want to start their season with a win here and they are again motivated to do something big in this Carabao Cup. Burton showed in past they are capable of scoring goals against Premier League sides (last season they defeated Bournemouth 2:0 before losing against Leicester 1:3). I think that Aston Villa must score at least 2 goals here if they want to win because Burton can be tricky although they are a team from the 3rd league. My call here is 1:3, good luck!
Published: 15-09-2020, 16:02 CET Pick: Over 2,5
Odds: 1.72 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: English football
Date: 15-09-2020
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 8)




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