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CSKA-Beroe    (lost)

Too high odds for the guests IMO. True, if you look the Beroe results like a guests its seems that this odds are fair, but the things are a little bit different after the winter break and for me right now these two teams are much more closer than the odds saying. 

 

CSKA had a good period after appointing their new young coach and have made a series of 10 consecutive games without conceding a goal. But the team did not play well and from match to match began to score goals more and more difficult. The hosts played five friendly games in Spain with a goal difference from 0:11 and losing four of them. In their last friendly match they won at home with 2:0 against mediocre team from the second level in Bulgaria. In the first official match, the derby against Levski, the match ended 0-0. CSKA won the next game against Botev Plovdiv with 1-0 and then came the big failure-a loss against a mediocre and newcomer team that had not won a single point against strong teams until then with 1:2. In the last game, which was for the Cup-the Reds' big goal, CSKA had many problems and barely beat the team of Botev Vratsa by 2:1 with a goal-gift after a gross mistake in defense at the end of the match. I will only mention that the guests have a balance of  0-1-10 and goal difference 5:31 against the first 6th teams in the standing! After these poor performances, the team's main goalscorer Ali Sowe will be left in reserve in this match and will be replaced by a young boy who came during the winter break. But for this match the hosts will have problems also in their defense where the captain and most experienced player Zanev is banned. Adding to the injury of Albentosa (one of the best players), as well as the expulsion of the team of the titular captain Bodurov (certainly the best player) in the winter, CSKA's defense will be led by the young boy Antov and there will be only mediocre or weak players around him. Also the second captain of the team Pinto (midfielder) also will miss this game due to injury and poor performance (both).

 

Beroe performance was below than expectations before winter and logically their coach was replaced. Now they got one of the best bulgarian coach's who made the selection according to his wishes (not 100%, but enough) and the results improved-the guests achieved three wins in three matches after the winter break. It is true that Beroe has very poor results as guests of the strong teams (1-0-6, 8:19 against the first 11th teams), but I expect to improve these results in the future. 

 

CSKA is going down as Beroe improves, the guests have the better coach and with the missing players ( injury, banned, benched or removed) I don't see such a difference between these two teams than the odds saying.

Published: 07-03-2020, 14:37 CET Pick: Beroe + 1.25
Odds: 1.546 at Pinnacle


Category: Bulgarian football
Date: 07-03-2020
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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