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CSKA Moscow - Crvena zvezda    (won)

Euroleague » R14

Another EL round and another great chance to go against Serbian team, Crvena zvezda. This round they are away in Moscow and this is one of toughest opponents in EL while Cz definitely this season one of the worst. That being said, I feel this handicap although in double digits, is too low. Probably we are going to see couple points higher later but maybe even not cause CSKA didn't play too well in this season. So, looking overall season so far, this number is set correctly by the tools bookmakers use, but there are few factors here which are not of course included in this line, so that's why I think it's short line.

Firstly, Cz is more terrible than you can imagine right now. They did change the head coach and won some straight games but exactly as I mentioned in preview for previous round, that was highly expected in the few upcoming when there is head coach change. But very soon, there will be problems again. And we saw it yesterday. The new coach has been nicely "scanned" by the Baskonia and they pretty much easily dealt with Serbian team. Final score even doesn't show the real picture cause it was 20 pts lead early in the 4th quarter. Also, have in mind, it was pretty poor game for Baskonia. I mean they had many problems in defending the paint, so they allowed too many offensive rebounds, plus some really rookie turnovers on 8 second rule (couldn't introduce the ball on the opponent half of the court in 8 seconds). Simply, Baskonia is bad right now and no wonder they were losing straight games with 25 and 30+ pts before coming to Serbia. But even with such modest game in Serbia, they still won more or less easily. So, you get the picture how bad Cz is right now.
In last preview I mentioned how big factor is the fact Cz is without real backup play-maker cause they have on that position club president's son who is nothing alike professional player. He even didn't play against Baskonia cause they put him on injury list although believe me, there is nothing wrong with him, no injury but simply pressure is too big from the fans to remove that clown from the team. But, most likely they will need to use him in this game in Moscow. Cause, very late in the match vs Baskonia, Lorenco Brown got injured and had to leave. Seems like it's not naive injury. So, Cz who already was in big problem in organizing their offense, now definitely is going to have big offensive issue without Brown or with Brown playing injured. I feel this is going to be really fun to watch, of course if your money is on CSKA Moscow while if you are in Crvena zvezda jersey, well, it's going to be another really ugly game to watch. Honestly I expect from CSKA Moscow to win this between 20 and 30 pts difference. So, whatever handicap you could find and whenever, don't be afraid to risk with home team.

As mentioned above, CSKA is not yet on expected level. But that's why we have only 10.5 against one of the EL worst and with CSKA being at home. In other scenarios, if CSKA would playing amazingly right now, this would be 15 to 16 pts line.
CSKA made some changes in its roster during the off season, some crucial pieces have left the team while current most valuable pieces are playing its first season in CSKA jersey. So, that was the reason why CSKA is not yet on the best level. But they definitely showed several time how strong they are, the most recent was 30 pts road win in Barcelona against team who is considered to be top favorite in this season. Though, the weakest games CSKA showed when they met the weakest opponents, so seems like also some motivation factor plays some role. But I know very well Dimitrios Itoudis philosophy. When his team plays weaker game, usually he would demand from his players huge effort the next time and then even if they play vs big underdog, they are expected to play max seriously in such situation. That being said, it is very good for this bet that CSKA has lost away in Tel Aviv in last round. And they lost in double digits although being huge points up in one moment. This tells me CSKA Moscow is going to bounce back big now and Crvena zvezda is the one who will pay the price on pretty ugly way.
Published: 13-12-2019, 15:02 CET Pick: CSKA -10.5
Odds: 1.89 at Expekt


Category: European basketball
Date: 18-12-2019
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)



betass 13-12-2019, 16:13
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