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C. Kenney vs. H. Alateng    (lost)

Tricky matchup. I think the odds are way too one-sided here. Kenney is a very decent grappler but usually he only uses his grappling if he's facing someone who has weak grappling or is just happy to be on his back like for example Manny Bermudez or Brandon Royval in the past. Bermudez and Royval are good submission grapplers but they're not so dangerous off their backs so Kenney took them down (he dropped Royval actually at one point) and dominated from top, cruised to decision wins twice. Against Borg or Merab he wasn't really initiating the grappling exchanges. Borg and Merab are very good grapplers with crazy scrambling skills. In the end Kenney is a solid striker, has good leg kicks but his standup isn't anything special and he has one big weakness which is his subpar cardio. He usually hasn't much left in Round 3 and it's obviously no banker but there is a good chance that he gonna lose R3 again here. Alateng on the other side has definitely the speed and power advantage in the striking. He's super powerful and explosive with good power. I'm a bit worried he's eating too much calf kicks in the early stage of the fight but on the other side it's probably the only thing he has to prepare for if it comes to Kenneys standup. Alateng also is a very strong wrestler so i do not expect Kenney to take him down but to be fair i don't see Alateng taking Kenney down too (at least not in Round 1 or 2). I expect a chess match in the standup and Alateng taking over mid R2, early R3. I thinK Kenney really has a cardio issue and i hope Alateng will expose that, he needs to fight physical and push a good pace, maybe initiate some clinches or even go for a TD (doesn't matter if he has success, just tiring Kenney out). Odds should be more in the +140 range imo. Kenney has the tools to win for sure, but his cardio is a let down spot and if Alateng makes R1 close which i do believe he can, he has a good shot to win a decision here.
Published: 28-09-2020, 12:24 CET Pick: H. Alateng
Odds: 3.3 at Pinnacle


Category: MMA
Date: 03-10-2020
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 1 (tipster's average: 4)




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