Celje vs Ararat    (lost)

Ararat-Armenia’s 2-1 win in the first leg leaves the tie in a very favourable context for the both teams to score market. Celje are forced to score, but they do not need to enter the match in desperation from the start, which allows Vítor Campelos to begin with some structure, take possession and increase the risk progressively. Still, at some point, the Slovenian side will have to accelerate: if they score first, they level the tie and force Ararat to come out; if they concede, they will need two goals and the match should also open up.

Celje scored early in the 1st leg through Sešlar, but were unable to control the match, allowing the Armenian side to respond with goals from Serobyan and França. The team have several attacking solutions to change the game, whether through greater presence between the lines, more individual quality out wide or extra weight inside the box in the final stages. At home, they should try to settle in the opposition half, find Sešlar and Kvesić between the lines and, as the minutes pass, push full-backs and midfielders into higher areas.

That increased risk also improves the conditions for Ararat to score. The Armenian side have already shown in this qualification campaign that they do not need to dominate territorially to find goals. Against Shamrock Rovers, even after being pushed back and seeing their advantage disappear in Dublin, they still managed to score through Sandro Lima and secure qualification. In addition, throughout their European campaign, Ararat have shown the ability to produce in different contexts, with Serobyan, Sandro Lima and França offering technical quality, box presence and transition threat.

Celje arrive with some additional comfort after beating Olimpija 1-0 in the league, but that result does not change the BTTS reading, because the incentives are completely different. Tomorrow, they start the match eliminated and will have to take more risks as the clock moves on. Given Celje’s attacking need, Ararat’s ability to attack space and the different scoreline scenarios that can open the game, both teams to score makes sense.

Fair odds: @1.75.