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Christopher Eubanks - Brandon Nakashima    (lost)

Atp Stuttgart R1

After a day of total rest (which was certainly good for him!) I decide to take the field with this bet that has value for me for the reasons I will list below. Chris Eubanks enters the most delicate part of the season for him, he absolutely has to defend the points he won last season, which are the 250 title he won in Mallorca, and especially the quarterfinals in Wimbledon, not confirming these results would mean for him to slip in the rankings, and even risk losing the ATP Top 100, which would mean risking having to return to Challenger tournaments, losing the chance to play ATP tournaments, something he has worked so hard to achieve. In the current ATP race, which calculates his overall results for the year, he occupies only the 171st position, a position that must obligatorily be improved. The context where the match will be played is the one most congenial to him, and to his type of game, I had a chance to see some matches on the side courts of the tournament, and they seem quite fast, ideal for his game made of serve and volley. The canvas of the match will be this, try not to offer rhythm to Nakashima, who needs to hit as many balls as possible to get into the match, and above all try to avoid as much as possible long exchanges from the back court. It will be necessary to have a great day on serve, make as many aces as possible, and serve many solid firsts, that allow him to be able to gain the net as quickly as possible. I had a chance to be able to watch Eubanks' last match at Roland Garros against Sinner, and his performance seemed to me to be in line with his chances, it was not completely garbage, it is clear that on clay the chances of being able to play his game are minimized. Given the importance of this match for the Atlanta player, I sincerely see a 50/50 match, and I strongly disagree with the 2.62 odds given by the bet365 book, but given the conservative and down-to-earth nature of my playing style, I decide to hedge with a +2.5-game handicap in his favor, which would cover me in the event of a close 7-6 7-6 defeat. Bet I have great confidence in.
Published: 11-06-2024, 09:06 CET Pick: Eubanks +2.5 Games
Odds: 1.757 at Pinnacle

Category: ATP tennis
Date: 11-06-2024
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)

FollowME 11-06-2024, 09:45
On paper, I would have taken Eubanks to win straight. However, his form in 2024 has been absolutely awful. That`s the only reason why I will skip this bet. You are right, he has A LOT of points to defend and he loved grass last season. But I want to first see his first grass match before backing him. We can count his wins this year on a hand and that has to have an impact. Good luck!
TheManiacBobo 11-06-2024, 10:09
Unfortunately in tennis you also have to be able to dare when you see a value odd; I am aware of the fact that Eubanks has won very few matches, but that is because of the impact he had to enter the ATP circuit so suddenly, despite that I saw some positive things in his defeat against Sinner at Roland Garros, also as an attitude shown on the court, not feeling beaten, and playing to the best of his ability in the three sets played. Unfortunately, in this sport the component of luck also comes into play, and I hope it will be on my side today....
FollowME 11-06-2024, 10:15
Oh trust me, I dare to take value just as Paolini in the semis. Here it`s not a question of daring to take the odds or not. It`s a mixture of his disgusting form, tight H2H, pressure to deliver on grass and that Brandon has already a few matches on hand. All of this being said, moneyline, I can see some very small value but I would agree with the price considering all the other factors. Hence, I will skip, because I want to see his approach to day and Nakashima can have some really nasty low net clearance shots that are painful for giants like Eubanks.
TheManiacBobo 11-06-2024, 10:36
The world is beautiful because it is varied, it will always be so I may see value on a share while you will disagree, for me today Eubanks has value at 2.62, then I may be wrong, in that case I will have missed the bet, I will make up for it with the next ones.
FollowME 11-06-2024, 10:41
I think you are skipping the point. I didn`t come to comment that there is no value or that the pick is not good. It was the opposite. I was checking the game and I was preparing to engage a bet on Eubanks. Yet, because of his form, I want to skip his first grass performance. That`s why when I saw your pick, I just said I actually thought to take him winner straight because you`ve said in your preview that you like more conservative approach so you took the spread. Anyway, long story short, I agree that Eubanks is the right player to back. GL
TheManiacBobo 11-06-2024, 11:09
I`m not fluent in English, so I may have misunderstood, I understood that you weren`t going against me, but even if you were I wouldn`t have been upset, everybody has their own point of view, and I really like it if somebody has a different opinion from mine that`s all.

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