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Cincinnati Reds - New York Mets    (won)

Last two times faded Vargas with succes so see no reason why not going against him again...

Some good matchups here, let's see why.

Vargas keeps pitching bad, but just two outings so far since he is back from an injurie. Two times he got destroyed though, 10.85 FIP (!), 5.40 BB/9 (!). Not much else to say, horrible stuff and this just in 8.1 innings pitched. He just did not went deep into games.

Reds are 8-27, TERRIBLE, of course, but they are not that bad of a team really. As i said before, their pitching stinks. Offensive wise they have Votto, still one of the best hitters of the NL and he shows that every year, besides one off year that he had. Also Suarez, Gennet and hamilton are hitting well this season. Overall the Reds are hitting .305 wOBA, not that bad as 6-7 teams are behind them. Against LHP however, and this is important since Vargas is a LHP, they hit a .329 wOBA, ranked 7th of all teams. In the last 14 days the Reds are hitting better with a 3.45 WOBA, ranked 7th as well.

As you can see, Reds are a good offensive team. They just have no pitching, if Finnegan would not be so bad against Miami the other day they would win probably because they scored 5 runs in that game. They face a leftie that is pitching bad at the moment and reds are hitting LHP well indeed.

Plus odds, that is value so Cinci to score more than 5.0 runs is my play. ( money back if 5 runs of course )

Published: 08-05-2018, 14:35 CET Pick: Cincinnati Reds over 5.0
Odds: 2.1 at Pinnacle


Category: MLB baseball
Date: 09-05-2018
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)




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