The actual odds are @41 on Dimi to win, but due to the BR rule, had to unput @20. Obviously I'm not going to back Alcaraz nor Sinner for that matter on @2.50 odds, however looking at the draw and some aditional info, backing Grigor can be really profitable if he scrambles his way to the Final
2-3 seasons earlier I would not consider Dimitrov to be a competitor for anything, however what he displayed in '23 and '24 so far, put him back in top 10 and it is a joy to watch him once more. Let's try to break down his potential road to the final.
Looking at his top of the draw, he is not facing a serious player till QF where he would meet hypotheticaly with Zverev.
R1 (bye)
R2 (Moutet/Maroszan)
I don't see any potential problems here for Dimi. Moutet can flash from time to time but that would normaly be on clay, while Maroszan proves often that he can choke big even after substantial lead. Although he has 0-2 in h2h vs Moutet that doesn't concern me too much. He leads 1-0 vs Maroszan though.
R3 (Probably Shelton)
I think if Shelton reaches R3 that will be his end. I oppossed him profitably yesterday vs Opelka l, was a tight match, could've gone either way. Shelton is still immature player, goes for flashy points rather for strategical builiding and that results with copious ammounts of errors. Grigor leads 1-0 in h2h and can pass on experience and with the right tactic.
R4 Quarter Finals (probably Zverev)
Zverev is currently in hot n cold situation. Plays one, two matches great, than screws everything in the next one. I think the current Dimitrov can challenge Sasha eventhough he has 2-7 in h2h. But, Grigor won vs Zverev this year in Miami on his way to Final (SF) ne of the defeats was last year right here, so Grisha could be seeking a payback.
R5 Semi-Finals (probably Sinner)
I know this might sound crazy, but it is a question will Sinner make it to SF in the first place. He has an open draw, but reading his statements, he said he still feels discomfort when moving and works toward resolving that matter. He also searches for the right state of mind and in his own words ''hoping to get all sorted'' by the time USO starts, which is his top priority. Sinner got an surprising exit from Rublev in Montreal, so I would not be surprised if we get to see another upset. Dimitrov has 1-4 in H2H, but as I said or in Sinner's words, he ain't all there.
Final (realisticly Alcaraz)
I mean we have to assume that on every tournament, Carlos is gonna be there as a top favourite. But, there are a couple of if(s) here. He's back on hard after Olympics whee he was emotinaly broken to losing against Novak. I don't think Carlos is the guy that will be too much bothered about missed chance (he will have plenty of more to get gold) but that ininital transition is always tricky. He'll face either Monfils or Popyrin. Since I have picked Monfis earlier, I'm kinda hoping that will be him but if Popyring still has gas left in the tank after Montreal, he can give Alcaraz a decent run. Nevertheless, Alcaraz is favourite to win this so we must put him here as a potential finalist.
Grigor managed to overcome this obstacle in Miami this year beating him and Zverev B2B on his way to Final. It is 3-2 for Carlos in h2h, so it's always been tense, especialy when Grisha is in the element. I would not say he would be without chances. But for our purposes, Grigor reaching Final would already be a good banker.
This seems like a good draw for Dimi, the bottom half is more challenging with the players like Carlos, Medvedev, Musetti, FAA, Tsitsipas, Berretini...
Grisha played Miami final this year, Marseiile Final, QF of RG, was good in W untill his unlucky fall, won Brisbane. Overall, @41 at Grigor seems like a really good value in my eyes.
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