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Cleveland Browns - Pittsburgh Steelers    (won)

At first glance, the impression is that these teams are equal and that the Browns are being overrated as favourites at home, including the movement of the line suggests, but this is not the correct analysis.

 

The Steelers impressed on their debut by beating the Cincinnati Bengals and then stayed close on the scoreboard in losing to the Patriots. At the same time, Cleveland struggled in Week 01 against the Panthers and delivered a won game against the Jets last Sunday, allowing for four touchdowns for the veteran Joe Flacco. Going beyond appearances, however, the Browns still had a superior offensive performance than the Steelers in the first two games. At the same time, the defence failed against the Jets. Still, they have good expectations of improvement in the containment to the aerial game, as they granted an average rating of 101.6 for opposing quarterbacks to date, the 6th-worst mark in the league, but also deflected 12 passes, 7th-best in the league, and allowed quarterbacks to complete only 59.7% of their passing attempts, 9th-lowest.

 

Still, while Brissett isn't brilliant, he works well as a game manager in an offence where the focus is on producing a ground play with running backs, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Steelers' offence, with offensive coordinator Matt Canada, has shown similar problems as last season, with Mitch Trubisky faring just as poorly as Ben Roethlisberger in his senior year. Land play is inefficient, with  running back Najee Harris averaging 3.8yds per career carry, just 2.9yds this season.

 

The Steelers seem to have improved in the containment of the land game, but I don't believe that the defence, as a whole, is better than Cleveland's. I see a clear superiority of the Browns in the attack, and therefore deserving of favouritism above the current handicap.

 

I confess that I don't understand the movement of the line, which went from -5.5 on the week to -3.5 on the day of the match, and I believe that along with my future bet on Sunday Night Football this week, this is the best bet value available this week 03.

Published: 22-09-2022, 21:45 CET Pick: Cleveland Browns -3.5
Odds: 1.85 at GG.bet


Category: NFL football
Date: 22-09-2022
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)




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