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Crvena zvezda - Partizan    (won)

Game from ABA Liga. Two Serbian sides will meet in this round. Crvena zvezda will host Partizan, both teams from the Serbian capital.
Both pretty much need victory in this match. Zvezda is in race for first position that brings home court advantage during entire playoffs. Buducnost has lost yesterday away in Bar from Mornar and now CZ with win would be tied on first place. Still, beside win against Partizan, CZ would need also one win more than Buducnost in rest of the regular season cause team from Montenegro hold the tiebreaker after winning both mutual games. 
Partizan on the other side is in race for 4th place, the lowest position that secures playoffs. But it will be very tough for "Black & White's" cause exactly above mentioned Mornar is their concurrent for position No.4. If Partizan loses here today, they will be even two wins behind Mornar and with tiebreaker in favor of team from Bar. So, it would be mission impossible for Partizan given on fact there are only four rounds left after this one.

For me situation in this game is pretty clear. If I need to choose handicap market, it's Crvena zvezda or pass. Cause, the host is much better in this season, after all it's a Euroleague team while Partizan with pretty modest roster compared with that level. But also handicap is set according to the mentioned quality difference. If you want profit by betting on Zvezda, you will need some 11 or even 12 pts difference. And I don't feel too much comfortable in betting on host here on such line. Crvena zvezda took the dominance in this competition in last several years but they never have been such strong handicap favorites against Partizan who by the way was six time straight champion of ABA in period before Zvezda's dominance. Partizan without doubt will be highly motivated here no matter even victory could hardly bring them desired fourth position. After all, these two are great rivals and even if the game would be without result importance for both, in fact it would be very important due to mentioned rivalry.

Recap, Crvena zvezda or pass. Since the handicap is too big this time, it will be pass for me. 
But it won't be pass when totals are in question. IMO over is winning bet here.

Partizan in entire season had huge problems in defense. No matter with whom they played, no matter how they have played, this team was allowing too many points. Of course, the most responsibility was on head coach Nikolic, but even with his leaving and with arrival of Canak, there wasn't some significant change. Though, Partizan in the meantime also partially has changed the roster. Couple players left, like American Patrick Miller and Jamaican Samardo Samuels, some new Americans have arrived but obviously it's a little bit late now for saving season in ABA. Still, Partizan has won the last three straight games and IMO we can expect one good effort from them here. For how much good result that will be enough, it's hard to tell but I think it will be enough to they contribute to over bet.
Crvena zvezda had less time to rest. They have played in Euroleague and won the game vs Olympiacos on this same floor. It was very good first of all offensive performance from Zvezda. Similar in my opinion we will see today.
Zvezda also changed it's roster a little bit as of late. Radicevic has left. The new player Omic was pretty decent against Olympiacos while Ennis who has arrived also not so long ago, was great and was one of most responsible for victory over the Greek team. 
Crvena zvezda is such team, at home they can (more often than not) score really a lot, even if Euroleague game is in question not to talk about ABA. 
Pero Antic was out against Olympiacos, Dobric earlier had injury problem. All in all, Crvena zvezda today on short rest and probably not with ideal situation with roster but IMO this shouldn't affect their offensive performance and thus shouldn't affect this over the totals bet. 

The first mutual game earlier in the season when Partizan hosted, ended with 84:100 Crvena zvezda victory. 

BTW, both, Crvena zvezda and Partizan are the hosts on the same place, in this same Aleksandar Nikolic hall. So, the only advantage is on the stands where this time CZ will have 90% while Partizan only 10% of the tickets.
Fact that both are the hosts here IMO is helpful for over the totals bet. Namely, both are here most of the times, play games, train here, they both know very well and got used on these rims. 

I expect result somewhere in range of minimum 85:75.

Published: 29-01-2018, 02:33 CET Pick: Over 158.5
Odds: 1.85 at Betway

Category: European basketball
Date: 29-01-2018
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)

aron50 29-01-2018, 02:40
Any idea Ennis over/under 9,5 points?It looks he feels fine in Zvezda according to game with Oly?
Fairplaybet 29-01-2018, 02:47
I rarely bet the players totals but that line seems low. He was,great the other day.
innn 29-01-2018, 15:19
I will be on Partizan to cover

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