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Crvena zvezda - Partizan    (lost)

Cup finals, one game will be played

The venue was supposed to be in Niš but after Partizan eliminated Radnički Niš in the semifinals, the finals was moved to capital and the draw decided to be on stadium of Crvena zvezda. So, CZ is the favorite due to this fact but also due to fact they have slightly better squad and also they are favorites due to everything what's going on in Serbian football in last years. 
The home team is better but not much as the odds suggests and not much as you would conclude if you take a look on the league standings. Mutual meetings were the best indicator and there it was always either CZ slightly better and the game end with their barely win or draw, or very often Partizan was quite better but in that case it's always draw and always with some funny to say at least refs decisions. I'm not talking only about this season but also earlier. That being said, if you can find it somewhere, penalty to be awarded for Red star is great bet.
As for winner market, I could consider only home team but the odds have no value cause I can't bet and wait for referees to finish the job. Instead, I need to look on the teams quality, current form, injuries etc. And from those angels, IMO odds on home win should be around 2.30 to 2.40. So, 1.80 is pass for me. 
Crvena zvezda wasn't in good form at all lately. Ok, it has to do also with fact they secured championship title and then played last 4 to 5 rounds with mixed squad. But even when it was decent squad, they played bad. Partizan on the other side improved and was better late in the season. Also, Partizan has all players available while CZ has two absent, one starter suspended in defense and first striker injured. Although honestly, IMO Pavkov in fact should be the first striker in any case cause he is far better than injured  Richmond Boakye.
Back to odds, since there is no value on home win, logically +0.5 on Partizan should be the way to go. Still, as already said, I can only consider home team. And the same I don't want to depend on referees if bet on host, also I don't want to possibly end up being ruined by the refs if I go with visiting team. Have in mind we have the same referees as last time with main guy whose nick is Elvis Presley :) 
Realistically, Partizan would need to be way way way better team to win this game, though, for +0.5 also draw is enough. 
In any case, I feel there is much better option from Partizan +0.5. It's a first half X.

The fact is the coach of home team is not offensively oriented, at least not when opponent is in the same or similar range. In some other games in Serbia, it's different story but against Partizan as well in European games, you wouldn't see CZ playing with too big risk unless they have negative result. 
Partizan too, probably is going to be more focused on defense early in the match. The bottom line, IMO this could be quite similar game as that last mutual in the league. Back then we had pretty much 50-50 match and without big danger for any goalkeeper early in the game, all until Crvena zvezda got a penalty during the second half. I think we could see similar game opening also now, so I am going with halftime draw. 
Published: 23-05-2019, 01:08 CET Pick: Halftime X
Odds: 2.18 at Marathonbet


Category: Serbian football
Date: 23-05-2019
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)



FairPlayBet 23-05-2019, 19:52
11 picks winning streak is finally over. But no worries, soon start another one.

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