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Dallas Cowboys - Philadelphia Eagles    (won)

The chance to back the better team playing at home with a short handicap is quite rare and usually only happens when a good portion of the public believes that the underdog is actually the superior team. In this case, this opportunity should not be missed. The Cowboys are the better team!

Yes, the Cowboys had an easy schedule, have already been defeated by the Eagles this season, and their defense has been suspect against above-average offenses. However, the Cowboys outperform the Eagles in almost every efficiency metric, and with some positive variance, they could have won their previous encounter. Despite their easy schedule, the Cowboys have produced a point differential of +168 so far, compared to just +41 for the Eagles, who have had few undeniable victories this season.

The Eagles are an above-average team, but nothing more than that.

My projection, which doesn't care about which teams won the games but rather weighs factors historically predictive of future performance, points to the Cowboys as 14-point favorites. This number, though wide, seems closer to the actual level difference between these teams than the current modest 3.0 from the sportsbooks.

The Eagles are likely motivated after the reality check they received last week in their loss to the 49ers, but this is a point of revenge for the Cowboys, who can match Philadelphia's campaign. I've spent the season asserting that the Eagles are a fraud. For consistency and respect to my projection, I'm backing the Cowboys in this Sunday Night Football.
Published: 10-12-2023, 22:05 CET Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3.0
Odds: 1.83 at Pinnacle


Category: NFL football
Date: 10-12-2023
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)



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